No meddling, but fingers crossed: as Iceland votes on whether to resume entry talks with the EU, Brussels is watching from afar in hope the outcome can deliver a rare enlargement “success story” for the bloc. Residents of the small volcanic island in the north Atlantic have until August 29 to answer a simple question: “Should Iceland reopen accession negotiations with the European Union?” The country of 400,000 people has wrestled with the issue before: Iceland applied to join in 2009 after a financial crisis devastated its economy. Brussels and Reykjavik spent years in painstaking negotiations, before Iceland ultimately shelved its application in 2015 with a simple letter. - Dream candidate - Then came Greenland. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to take control of the autonomous Danish territory have resonated strongly in neighbouring Iceland, which relies on the United States and NATO for its defence. The Icelandic authorities have since put EU membership back on the table, making the case that joining the 27-nation bloc would be beneficial in the current geopolitical context. A referendum proposal was launched in the spring, not on membership per se, but simply at this stage on reopening talks. A poll conducted by newspaper DV and published in late July put the “yes” camp ahead on about 53 percent -- enough to kindle hope in EU circles that Iceland may be back on track to join the fold. “I think they want a success story” to reinvigorate the European project, said one Brussels-based source, speaking on condition of anonymity. The bloc last expanded in 2013 when it admitted Croatia -- its ranks briefly swelling to 28 member states until the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote to leave, which it did in 2020. The years since have been marked by halting progress among EU candidates in the western Balkans, with Montenegro and Albania seen as closest in line to join, and the opening of a vast accession process with Ukraine. For many European capitals, Iceland looks like something of a dream candidate. More than 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles) from Brussels as the crow flies, the island is already closely integrated with the EU. It belongs to the Schengen free-travel area and also participates in the European Economic Area (EEA), meaning it already applies a large share of EU legislation. - Mackerel matters - But for all that, don’t expect EU officials to jump on a plane to Reykjavik waving little European flags. Icelandic authorities are understood to have explicitly asked Brussels to keep a low profile during the campaign to avoid accusations of interference. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot is among the European officials who have visited Iceland in recent weeks. At a joint news conference with his Icelandic counterpart, he simply stressed Reykjavik had “nothing to lose” from negotiating with Brussels. The same message has come from the European Commission. “Should the Icelandic people decide to resume negotiations, the European Union stands ready to engage constructively and in a timely manner,” said commission spokesperson Guillaume Mercier. As for the negotiations themselves, several diplomats say they are likely to zero in on mackerel fishing quotas. Brussels accuses Iceland of catching too much of the species, which has migrated northward as a result of climate change. The fishing sector is crucial to the Icelandic economy, and Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir has made clear Reykjavik would insist on “a good deal” on the issue. There’s no doubt that talks, if they get going again, will be tough. But even so, the Brussels source remained optimistic: “I don’t think anyone wants to block an accession over a question of fish.”
