As Americans head to the polls for midterm elections Tuesday, the outcome could have significant consequences for Canada. CTVNews.ca will have live results, breaking updates, real-time election data and on-the-ground reporting from key battleground states. WASHINGTON -- Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats in Tuesday’s midterm elections to wrest control of the U.S. Senate from Republicans, with voter discontent over U.S. President Donald Trump, the Iran war and rising prices putting races in once-solidly Republican states into play. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and a Democratic takeover looked unlikely at the start of the year. But Democrats are now competitive in states Trump won handily in 2024, even as Republicans seek to capture Democratic-held seats of their own. Here are the races that could determine control of the Senate: Democrats target Republican seats Alaska Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is up for reelection against Democratic former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola and an outsider who shares Sullivan’s name. It’s not a coincidence. The New York Times last week reported that Peltola’s aides worked with the campaign’s lawyers and senior staff to recruit potential spoilers, two of whom are on the ballot in Alaska. Peltola’s former campaign manager told the newspaper that Peltola was aware of the effort but not directly involved. Trump called the scheme “voter fraud at the highest level” and said Peltola should be removed from the ballot and prosecuted. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy directed a state agency to investigate whether laws were broken and criminal charges or civil action are warranted. Alaska allows voters to rank their top picks rather than choosing a single candidate. Voters will have four choices, including Sullivan, Peltola and the other Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans have long called a decoy and a Democratic effort to confuse voters. The U.S. Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska’s election results if Sullivan narrowly loses reelection, but a federal judge dismissed it. Peltola has outraised Sullivan, US$37 million to nearly $14 million. Republican and Democratic groups have spent a collective $90 million, almost evenly split between the parties. Trump won Alaska by 13 percentage points in 2024, but opinion polls from last month showed Peltola narrowly leading Sullivan. Iowa Trump’s unpopularity, tariffs and the Iran war have put Republicans on defense in Iowa, where Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Republican U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek reelection has made this an open-seat contest between Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist. In her closing message, Hinson released an ad acknowledging the economic pain families are feeling. In a social media post, Hinson said she understands what Iowa families are facing because, as a mother of two teenage boys, she’s fighting for her family, too. Turek has said Hinson, who has criticized millennials’ financial habits, doesn’t understand what it’s like to struggle and has voted to drive up everyday costs by opposing resolutions to end the war in Iran. Turek has outraised Hinson, $24 million to $14 million. Democrats have poured $96 million into the race, while Republicans have spent $85 million. Kansas The political environment has shifted in favor of Democrats so much that Kansas is now in play. Republicans have diverted resources from North Carolina to shore up U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, who sued hundreds of patients over medical debt as a longtime OB-GYN. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but the state has twice elected Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. And Republican leaders have acknowledged the race is competitive and closer than they would like it to be. Marshall’s opponent is Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a Methodist mega church. Hamilton has outraised Marshall, $19 million to $7.5 million. Democrats have spent $51 million on the race to Republicans’ $29 million. The last time Kansas voters elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1932. A recent poll has Hamilton leading narrowly. Maine Democrats’ top pickup opportunity to begin the cycle was in Maine, the lone state where a Republican incumbent is up for reelection in a state Trump lost in 2024. Senator Susan Collins’ closing ad features retired broadcaster Bill Green saying Democrat Troy Jackson is qualified to buy a cord of wood but not to represent the state in the Senate. Jackson is a logger and former Maine Senate president. Jackson said in response that this election is about a cord of wood because in Trump’s and Collins’ economy, people can’t afford to heat their homes. And in his own campaign ad, he says he wouldn’t buy a cord of wood from Collins or send her back to the Senate. Jackson became the Democratic nominee after the party’s original nominee, progressive oysterman Graham Platner, was pressured into withdrawing following sexual assault allegations, forcing the state party to scramble for a new candidate. Platner denied the allegations. But Jackson, another progressive, has drawn criticism for his treatment of women. He told Collins to “shut up” during a debate and has said he doesn’t regret it. Jackson has outraised Collins by about $1.5 million despite not entering the race until July. But Republican groups have spent about $82 million on the race to Democrats’ $49 million. Recent polls show Jackson leading. North Carolina Republicans appear to have conceded North Carolina, where even Trump has suggested the Democrat will win. At a campaign rally last month in Greenville, Trump told supporters it was “crazy” that former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, was going to be their next senator. Trump won North Carolina by 3 points in 2024, but Republican Senator Thom Tillis’ retirement made this year’s Senate race an open contest. Trump recruited former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley to succeed Tillis, but the ex-party official has been unable to compete with Cooper’s fundraising, and Republican allies who invested heavily in holding North Carolina have begun shifting their focus to other states. Cooper has raised $50 million to Whatley’s $14 million. Recent polls have Cooper leading between 9 and 14 points. Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024, and working-class frustration with the Iran war and rising prices may be giving him a tailwind. This time, Brown faces U.S. Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to replace U.S. Vice President JD Vance when Vance left the Senate for the White House. The winner of the special election will be on the ballot again in 2028 for a full six-year term. The Ohio race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation, with outside spending approaching $400 million. Republican have invested $237 million to Democrats’ $150 million. Brown has raised $68 million to Husted’s $20 million. Recent polls show Brown leading by as many as 5 points or tied. South Carolina Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024. Yet he’s also the reason Republicans could lose a seat in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. After the death of his ally, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, Trump wanted Graham’s sister Darline appointed to his seat. He later encouraged her to run for a full six-year term despite her low profile and political inexperience. Graham won a special runoff election for the Republican nomination with Trump’s backing, but she acknowledged during the primary that she’s “not that informed on national security,” an issue she conceded was “not my thing.” Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, has outraised Graham by $22 million. Republican outside groups have poured $22 million into holding the seat, though Democrats have invested $18 million to flip it. Trump last week held a rally in the state, where Graham told supporters her opponent is “batshit crazy.” In response, Andrews asked Graham if it’s crazy “to want cheaper gas and groceries.” Texas Republicans alone have spent a staggering $300 million in Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. But Republicans have been forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to prop up scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ousted Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff with the president’s endorsement. Cornyn was widely believed to have an easier path to victory, and he has not come around to supporting Paxton after their bitter primary. Trump has repeatedly campaigned in the final weeks of the election as polls show Paxton trailing Democratic state Representative James Talarico, who has outraised Paxton this cycle by $124 million. Democrats’ $100 million in outside spending is just a fraction of what Republicans have poured in to hold a seat that has a symbolic significance as a bastion of Republican politics. Recent polls show Talarico leading between 2 and 8 points. Republicans target Democratic seats Georgia Georgia was one of two key pickup opportunities for Republicans at the beginning of the election cycle, as Trump won the state by 2 points in 2024. But Republican U.S. Representative Mike Collins has struggled to gain traction against Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff, a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Ossoff has outraised Collins by $126 million. Former President Barack Obama rallied with Ossoff and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in Atlanta last week. Polls have consistently shown Ossoff leading. Michigan Republicans are more hopeful about flipping an open seat in Michigan as Democratic divisions have persisted in what could be the tightest race for a Democratic-held Senate seat this year. Progressive outsider Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated moderate U.S. Representative Haley Stevens during the primary, who turned the race on its head over the weekend with a surprise endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers, a former U.S. representative. El-Sayed and Stevens have clashed bitterly over Middle East policy, as El-Sayed has criticized Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war, while Stevens backs Israel. Rogers has sought to exploit those tensions with Black and Jewish voters. In a recent ad, Rogers cast El-Sayed as a single-issue candidate more focused on Gaza than Michigan. El-Sayed campaigned with Obama last month, and he released an ad last week that aimed to humanize him as a loving father of two daughters. El-Sayed, who is Muslim, has been demonized on the campaign trail as a dangerous radical whose allegiance isn’t to America. El-Sayed has raised $54 million to Rogers’ $23 million. But Republicans have poured $157 million into the race to Democrats’ $89 million. While the last-minute drama has dominated headlines in the race’s final stretch, it may not affect the outcome. Recent polls show El-Sayed leading by 6 to 9 points. Minnesota In another state that could test whether a progressive can win a competitive statewide race in a battleground state, Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan faces former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, who is running as an outsider while tying Flanagan to the state’s childcare fraud scandal that caused Democratic Governor Tim Walz to forgo his reelection. In Flanagan’s closing ad, she says Minnesotans are struggling to afford gas and groceries while losing their healthcare. She blames Trump “and the cowards who go along with him,” noting Trump has endorsed Tafoya “because he knows she’ll do his bidding, too.” Unlike her Democratic colleagues, Flanagan trails her Republican opponent in fundraising, $11.6 million to $12.5 million. But there has been little outside investment in the race as other states have attracted significantly more attention. Republican and Democratic groups have each spent $1.8 million. Flanagan has consistently led in polls. Then-presidential candidate Kamala Harris won Minnesota by 4 points in 2024. The seat opened with Democratic Senator Tina Smith’s retirement. The other senator, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, is running for governor. If Klobuchar wins, she would appoint her successor to the Senate. New Hampshire Democrats are defending another open seat in New Hampshire, a state Harris won by nearly 3 points in 2024. Democratic U.S. Representative Chris Pappas is running against former U.S. Senator John Sununu, who was ousted by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen is retiring. Sununu benefits from a famous last name. His brother Chris was governor until last year and his father — also named John — was a governor and White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush. At their final debate last week, Pappas said the election is about who’s for New Hampshire and who’s for Trump, telling voters that if Sununu were as effective as he claims to be, voters wouldn’t have ousted him after a single term in the Senate. Sununu argued that Pappas hasn’t accomplished anything after nearly eight years in Washington. Pappas has outraised Sununu, $24 million to $6 million. But Republicans have spent $37 million in the race to Democrats’ $24 million. Pappas has maintained a consistent polling lead of 5 to 7 points in recent surveys. (Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill and Andy Sullivan; Editing by Michael Learmonth, Howard Goller, Jonathan Spicer and Deepa Babington)
