Iran warns against ‘instability’ after U.S. strike group arrives

A billboard depicting a damaged U.S. aircraft carrier with disabled fighter jets on its deck and a sign reading in Farsi and English, "If you sow the wind, you'll reap the whirlwind," is seen at Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) Square in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Iran’s president on Tuesday warned U.S. “threats” against the Islamic republic would only cause instability, as a US naval strike group led by an aircraft carrier took up position in Middle Eastern waters.

Washington has not ruled out military intervention against Tehran over its crackdown on protests -- which rights groups say left thousands of people dead -- and President Donald Trump has dispatched the USS Abraham Lincoln to the area “just in case”.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hit out at U.S. “threats” in a call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saying they were “aimed at disrupting the security of the region and will achieve nothing other than instability”.

The U.S. also maintains several bases in the Middle East, prompting a Revolutionary Guards commander to issue a warning to Iran’s neighbours on Tuesday.

“Neighbouring countries are our friends, but if their soil, sky, or waters are used against Iran, they will be considered hostile,” Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy of the IRGC naval forces, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

Since Iran launched its crackdown on protests earlier this month, accompanied by a blanket internet blackout, Trump has given mixed signals on intervention, which some opponents of the clerical leadership see as the only way to bring about change.

“We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela,” Trump told the Axios news site on Monday, weeks after the U.S. military captured the Latin American nation’s president, Nicolas Maduro.

But he added: “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.”

Tehran has previously said a channel of communication is open between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, despite the lack of diplomatic relations between the two foes.

Axios said Trump declined to discuss the options presented to him by his national security team, or which he prefers.

Analysts say options include strikes on military facilities or targeted attacks against the leadership under supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a bid to bring down the system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution that ousted the shah.

‘Weakest point’

The New York Times reported that Trump has received multiple U.S. intelligence reports “indicating that the Iranian government’s position is weakening”, and that its hold on power “is at its weakest point” since the shah’s fall.

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham told the paper he had spoken with Trump in recent days about Iran and that “the goal is to end the regime”.

“They may stop killing them today, but if they’re in charge next month, they’ll kill them then,” he said of the authorities’ treatment of protesters.

Iranian officials have in recent days appeared wary of pouring oil on the fire.

But the Hamshahri conservative newspaper on Tuesday quoted Revolutionary Guards spokesman Mohammad Ali Naini as saying that “if their aircraft carrier made a mistake and entered Iranian territorial waters, it would be targeted” -- only to later retract the report and apologize to Naini.

The conservative Javan newspaper said Iran was “ready for a major response” and would seize the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key transit hub for energy supplies.

Meanwhile, an anti-U.S. billboard has appeared in Tehran that appears to show an American aircraft carrier being destroyed.

‘Mass arrests, intimidation’

Rights groups have described the crackdown as the deadliest ever against protests in Iran, and warn that compiling tolls has been complicated by an almost three-week internet blackout they say is aimed at masking the extent of the repression.

Monitor Netblocks on Tuesday reported intermittent connectivity but warned internet access remained “heavily filtered on a whitelist basis” and users would still need workarounds.

In an updated toll, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,126 people had been killed, including 5,777 protesters, 86 minors, 214 members of the security forces and 49 bystanders.

But the group, which has an extensive network of sources inside Iran and has tracked the protests on a daily basis since they began, added it was still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities.

At least 41,880 people have been arrested, it said.

“Security agencies continue to pursue an approach centered on mass arrests, intimidation, and control of the narrative,” HRANA said.

Over the weekend, Persian-language TV channel Iran International, which is based outside Iran, said more than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces between January 8 and 9, citing reports, documents and sources.

It was not immediately possible to verify the report.

Stuart Williams, AFP