AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota on election day

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks during a debate with Republican candidate Michele Tafoya at Minnesota Public Radio headquarters on Friday, Oct. 16, 2026, in St. Paul, Minn. (Kerem Yücel /Minnesota Public Radio via AP)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Minnesota voters will elect a new governor and new senator Tuesday after retirement announcements by two prominent Democrats caused a reshuffling throughout the ballot. Voters will also decide races for other federal and state offices, including contests across the state that could determine control of both chambers of the narrowly divided state Legislature.

The state has been at the center of a political maelstrom in President Donald Trump’s second term, as the Republican president has focused much of his ire on Minnesota and its Democratic leaders.

In the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, are among four candidates vying to replace Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who announced in 2025 that she would not seek a second full term.

Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig in the Aug. 11 primary, 59% to 39%, in one of several Democratic primary matchups this year where progressive candidates outperformed establishment favorites. Smith backed Flanagan in the primary, as did Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Ilhan Omar of the 5th Congressional District. Outgoing Democratic Gov. Tim Walz did not make an endorsement.

• Complete U.S. midterm coverage on CTVNews.ca

Tafoya defeated eight candidates in her primary, including former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who had the state party’s endorsement. Trump did not back any candidate in the primary but endorsed Tafoya on Monday for the general election.

In the race for governor, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth are among three candidates running to replace Walz. Demuth was the top vote-getter in a seven-candidate primary field that included prominent 2020 election denier and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, who had Trump’s endorsement. Klobuchar faced minimal opposition for the Democratic nomination.

All seats in both chambers of the Minnesota state Legislature are up in 2026. Democrats have a one-seat advantage in the 67-member state Senate. In the 134-member state House, Democrats and Republicans were deadlocked at 67 seats each until a Republican member vacated his seat after the session adjourned for the year.

Trump lost Minnesota in all three of his presidential campaigns. His best showing was in 2016, when he came within 1.5 percentage points of victory. He lost by about 4 points in 2024, receiving 46.7% of the vote.

In statewide races, Democrats typically post big wins in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. They also typically carry the Duluth area in the northeast and the Rochester area in the southeast. Republicans have performed best in smaller, more rural counties across the state.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s 2006 reelection was the last statewide contest Republicans won in Minnesota. The last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in Minnesota was Norm Coleman in 2002.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general, state Senate, state House and a statewide ballot measure.

How many people actually vote?

About 2.5 million votes were cast in Minnesota’s 2022 election for governor.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 27% of the vote in the 2022 gubernatorial election was cast early in person or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for Minnesota can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Counties are expected to release results from early in-person and mail voting throughout the night, along with results from in-person Election Day voting. The first vote reports of the night are expected to include results from all vote types.

Hennepin County, the state’s most populous, expects to release complete results from all vote types in the first vote update. Ramsey and Dakota counties are expected to release relatively few results in their first vote updates, regardless of vote type.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 9:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The vote count reached the halfway point at 11:40 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 5:19 a.m. ET Wednesday morning with more than 99% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Recounts in Minnesota are not automatic, but the losing candidate may request one under certain circumstances. A publicly funded recount can be requested in federal, judicial or state constitutional offices, like governor, if the margin between the winning and losing candidate is less than 0.25% of the vote. For state legislative races, the required margin is less than 0.5% of the vote. In races in which fewer than 400 votes are cast, the margin is 10 votes or fewer. Candidates may pay for a recount in races in which the vote margin is beyond the threshold for a publicly funded recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Robert Yoon, The Associated Press