CTV News declares Elmwood-Transcona flips blue to Colin Reynolds

A map of the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg for the federal election. (Elections Canada) (Elections Canada)

A byelection rematch in Elmwood-Transcona has garnered a new result.

CTV News is declaring Colin Reynolds elected, beating out NDP incumbent Leila Dance.

Dance won the byelection in September over Reynolds by just over 1,000 votes.

Details about the riding can be found below.

Candidates

(* indicates incumbent)

Leila Dance - NDP*

Nicolas Geddert - Green Party of Canada

Ian MacIntyre – Liberal Party of Canada

Colin Reynolds – Conservative Party of Canada - ELECTED

Collin Watson – People’s Party of Canada

2021 Federal Election

The NDP’s Daniel Blaikie won re-election for his third term, collecting nearly 50 per cent of the vote. Blaikie resigned in March 2024 to work with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew. Leila Dance won a byelection in September 2024 to fill the seat.

History

The riding was created in 1987 by combining the Winnipeg North Centre and Winnipeg-Birds Hill ridings.

It has been an NDP stronghold for nearly all its history, with Lawrence Toet of the Conservative Party of Canada breaking through in 2011. It went back to NDP representation in 2015.

MacIntyre and Reynolds previously ran in the 2024 byelection against Dance, with Reynolds finishing in second place.

Boundaries

Neighbourhoods in the riding include East Kildonan, Transcona, and Elmwood.

In the 2022 boundary redistribution, the riding has lost the area north of Leighton Avenue and west of Raleigh Street to the neighbouring Kildonan – St. Paul district while gaining the Navin, Norcan and Dugald areas from the Provencher district.

Demographics

There are 101,691 people living in the riding, according to the 2021 Census. This is up from 92,738 reported in 2016.

The riding has a 57.4 per cent European population, a 14.15 per cent Indigenous population, and an 8.6 per cent Filipino population.