Winnipeg riding could predict election outcome

The bellwether riding of Winnipeg South could be a close race this federal election. CTV's Jeff Keele has the latest.

There may be a lot at stake in a swing city seat in Winnipeg.

Chris Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies, said Winnipeg South is known as a bellwether riding, meaning historically, whoever wins there, wins the general election.

“Winnipeg South, as that goes, so goes the nation,” said Adams.

The seat has flipped back and forth over the decades between the Conservatives and Liberals.

The Liberal incumbent is Terry Duguid, who is also a cabinet minister.

“I’ve served this community to the best of my ability and raised issues in parliament I know the people of Winnipeg South are concerned about,” said Duguid.

Like other Liberal candidates, Duguid may be benefiting from a bump in the polls because of a change in leadership from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney.

“Mr. Carney brings a new perspective, which I think is needed at this time given some of the forces that are thrust upon us.”

While Duguid is well known, his Conservative opponent has name recognition in the area too.

Janice Morley-Lecomte is a former provincial PC MLA and cabinet minister.

“I was approached by a number of individuals to say, ‘please, if you are still interested, we’d love for you to still represent us. We know the federal election is coming up, think about it’,” said Morley-Lecomte.

Polls may have the Liberals with a lead nationally, but Morley-Lecomte said voters are telling her on the doorstep they want change.

“It is very close,” said Morley-Lecomte. “I don’t think anyone can confirm and say that it’s one way or the other. Again, this is going to be, come election day, it’s going to be decided then.”

Adams agrees, this could be a close one.

“It’s a tough battle between two well-known candidates, and both those individuals have been knocking on doors for a long time before this election,” said Adams.

While this is likely a race between blue and red, NDP candidate Joanne Bjornson said it’s important her party’s voice is heard in Winnipeg South.

“If I’m not willing to step up and run, and if we aren’t willing to step up and vote for NDP candidates, the NDP message gets lost and that message is for everyday people,” said Bjornson.

There are two other candidates on the ballot in Winnipeg South. Johann Rempel Fehr is running for the People’s Party of Canada, and Manjit Kaur is the Green Party of Canada representative.