Election 2025: Vancouver Island electoral map could undergo major change

In recent history, the Island hasn’t favoured the Liberals or the Conservatives – instead voting NDP and Green. Will that change in 2025?

With less than a week to go, it’s crunch time in an election many are calling the biggest in generations.

Vancouver Island could be in for major changes to an electoral map that’s been largely orange for the past three elections. In 2015, six NDP MPs were elected, in 2019 they had five MPs on the Island, and in 2021 they elected six out of the seven MPs there. Each time there was a pocket of Green.

But it hasn’t always been that way. In 2004, the Conservatives held swaths of the north and mid-Island—an area Pierre Poilievre has visited five times in the last year and a half.

“I think it’s the best chance for the Conservatives to paint a little bit of the Island blue that they’ve had in probably 20 years,” said pollster Mario Canseco on Tuesday.

Mark Carney has campaigned in the south Island, where the Liberals are seen as posing a real threat to the NDP in Victoria, and a three-way race between the Conservative, Liberal and NDP candidates has emerged in Esquimalt- Saanich-Sooke. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has made frequent stops to the south Island, including over the Easter long weekend.

“Typically a sign that the riding is not that safe, if the leader is here in the last week, that means they see it as competitive,” said Camosun College political science instructor Dan Reeve.

While the outcome in B.C. is often seen as less consequential than seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, this time could be different, said University of Victoria political scientist Michael Prince.

“We’re going to still matter in determining certainly the fate of at least one national leader if not two,” said Prince, regarding the impact of voting on Vancouver Island.

Singh is fighting to hold onto his Burnaby riding, and Green party co-leader Elizabeth May is battling to keep her seat in Saanich and the Gulf Islands.

What’s more, polls show the NDP are in jeopardy of not winning the required 12 seats to earn official party status. Thirteen of its 24 MPs from the last election are in B.C.—a third of them on the Island.

“This province will decide whether they have official party status in the next parliament,” said Prince.

And seven of the province’s riding battles will play out in a region known for bucking national trends.

“It’s always been the case of the Island voter being a little anti-establishment,” said Canseco.