B.C. sees annual population drop for first time on record

Spectacular scenery and the mildest weather in Canada aren't enough to keep everyone in B.C.

B.C. has seen its first annual population drop on record, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada.

The province saw its population drop by a record 14,335 in the third quarter of this year.

While experts caution use of quarterly figures, this the first drop on an annual basis since the national statistical agency starting keeping records.

“Quite frankly, after years of record-breaking numbers of people coming to British Columbia, to Canada, it gives us a moment to breathe,” B.C. Jobs and Economic Growth Minister Ravi Kahlon told CTV News Wednesday.

“We have seen the federal government make a shift many months ago around immigration, and particularly around temporary residents, and the numbers now reflect that change.”

A departure of non-permanent residents is driving this, following immigration changes at the federal level.

The latest numbers indicate Canada as a whole has also seen its largest population decline on record.

“We’re certainly pleased to see the numbers start to balance,” Kahlon said.

“We need to ensure that we’re able to get those social services up to meet the record numbers that we already have. And as we move forward, we urge the federal government to work with the provinces.”

During the Trudeau years, the Liberal government focused on growing the economy through building a larger population. Critics, including the Business Council of B.C., have expressed concern that that approach didn’t focus enough on productivity or raising GDP-per-capita.

“As that population surge fades away, sectors that expanded rapidly during that period will see growth now normalize,” said Jairo Yunis, the council’s policy director.

“So that’s on the short term what’s going to happen. Over the medium term, slower population growth can ease pressure on housing, infrastructure, public services and improve the conditions for productivity.”

The drop in population already appears to be having an effect on the rental market.

Vacancies are up and asking rents have dropped 8.5 percent in the past two years in the Vancouver area.

But it’s not one way traffic. The quarterly numbers show interprovincial migration has turned positive again. So, while non-permanent residents are leaving, people from other parts of the country are coming here at a rate higher than those leaving.

“It is what you would expect,” said Tom Davidoff, an economist with the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.

“If Vancouver is more impacted by reduced immigration than the rest of Canada in terms of falling rents, that vacuum sucks up Canadians from elsewhere.”

And the trend of a declining population could continue. Last month the federal government indicated it plans to allow only 385,000 temporary residents next year, and even fewer in the following two years.