‘Not a good chance at all’ of Toronto seeing a white Christmas: climatologist

From Christmas to New Years, David Phillips of Environment Canada shares what to expect from the forecast over the holiday season.

Toronto residents may be dreaming of a white Christmas this year, but they won’t likely get to see one, says David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.

Last year, the white stuff fell in much of southern Ontario on Christmas. Philipps told CP24 that he isn’t counting on that happening again this year.

He joked that we shouldn’t be too greedy and expect a snowy repeat in Toronto for 2025.

“I mean, you think two in a row would be something quite unusual?,” Phillips quipped.

“There used to be 60 per cent chance, now it’s more like 40 per cent, and in the last 16 years there have been 11 green ones so hey, I bet on the fact that it isn’t going to be (a white) one.”

Phillips said things initially looked promising as there was snow on the ground just five days ago in the city, however the temps warmed up bringing rain to the region and any snow accumulation Toronto had melted.

He said that while the cold has returned, there are only a few flakes flying in the air, not enough to cover the ground.

“You don’t get a white Christmas with flurries. I mean, a white Christmas has to be two centimeters of snow sitting in your backyard. You take a ruler and you go around and you measure it and that would be a white Christmas, but I don’t think you’re going to get it with flurries,” Phillips said, adding by Tuesday and Wednesday (Christmas Eve) temperatures are forecasted to rise to 4 or 5C bringing with them rain showers.

Phillips said he’d place bets bet on Vancouver having a white Christmas before Toronto this year, which is pretty unlikely.

If it’s any consolation, the long-time climatologist said people won’t have to travel too far to take in a white Christmas, adding it’ll be cold enough between Christmas and the New Year in Toronto that if any precipitation were to fall it would be snow.

“Places like King City, you’ve got five or six centimeters of snow there, and they’ll be all right. Everything’s gonna hold this week. And where I live up in Barrie, we have about 20 centimeters, though Collingwood is even more. Muskoka 25 (centimetres, also) Kitchener, Peterborough. So you know, you don’t have to travel too far to see it,” he said.

‘Cool, not polar vortex cold’

Phillips said kids who receive saucers and toboggans and sleighs at Christmas will have a good chance of using them during the holiday break.

“I think we’re going to see a cool, not polar vortex cold, but temperatures that are going to be below freezing, and any precipitation that falls will be snow. So I think that you’re going to be able to use those gifts at Christmas. It’s just that Christmas Day won’t be too, too Christmassy-like in terms of the weather,” he said.

That being said, not having to deal with snowy conditions in the city will help people travelling around and shopping for last-minute gifts get around much easier, said Phillips.

“Boy, there will be no problem doing it this week so that’s a one good thing about it. But my sense is, I think it’s not a good chance this year at all (for a white Christmas),” he said.

Rest of winter more ‘typical,’ says Phillips

As for the rest of the winter, which officially began just after 10 a.m. today, Phillips said he predicts it will be more “typical.”

“I think we’re going to back off from these colder-than-normal winter (temps) to something that’s going to be sort of like, you know, typical. You know, a few cold moments and some warm moments, some melting, falling, and what have you,” he said.

“And so my sense, it’s kind of a mixed bag. It’s kind of a yo-yo kind of weather soo I think all those prospects of the polar vortex biting is deep and hard and snow, the year of snow, I don’t think that’s going to materialize.”

Days are also getting longer, he added, and that’s definitely something to look forward to.

“If you’re not a big fan of winter, you can celebrate today that every day is a little bit longer than the previous day,” said Phillips, who added that while there still is a lot of winter left, people are now used to it and know how to deal with it.