GTA residents believe crime is surging, when it’s actually the opposite: new survey

High-profile incidents appear to be shaping public perception, even as police data shows fewer serious crimes

The vast majority of residents in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) believe major crime is surging across Canada, even though police data shows the opposite.

A new province-wide survey by Liaison Strategies found that nearly three quarters of Torontonians surveyed are under the impression that murders are up in their communities and across the country, despite a historic drop of more than 50 per cent since last year.

Most of those surveyed in Brampton, Mississauga, Vaughan, and Markham share similar views.

Peel Regional Police, however, have reported only 10 homicides through October 2025, compared to 19 in all of 2024. Over in York Region, murders are actually down by 67 per cent year-over-year.

Auto thefts have also dropped by more than a quarter in Toronto, and by almost 40 per cent in Peel and York, according to official police data.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, noted that in Toronto, homicides have “plummeted,” however 72 per cent of residents surveyed believe they are on the rise.

“We see the same pattern in Peel and York; residents are feeling a level of risk that simply doesn’t align with the 2025 statistical reality,” he said in a news release, noting citizens in all of the five GTA cities surveyed perceive that crime is on the rise, “regardless of whether crime has increased, remained stable or declined.”

Valentin went on to say that while auto thefts dropped by more than 25 per cent in Toronto, nearly 40 per cent in Peel, and 37 per cent in York, more than 7 in 10 Torontonians and Bramptonians still believe the problem is “worsening.”

He added that high-profile reports of carjackings may be “overshadowing the statistical reality” that stolen vehicles are actually declining.

‘A national perception gap’

“Despite massive enforcement successes across the GTA, public concern remains stubbornly high,” Valentin said in a news release.

“The GTA is currently the epicenter of a national perception gap.”

People in the 10 cities surveyed (Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, Vaughan, Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Ottawa, and Windsor) were also asked about their perceptions of assaults, robbery, break-and-enter, fraud and cybercrime, and hate-motivate crime with similar results.

Liaison Strategies surveyed GTA residents from Brampton (800), Mississauga (800), Vaughan (800), Markham (800) and Toronto (1,000) using in Toronto Interactive Voice Response from October 22 to 23, 2025.

This survey has a margin of error is ±3.46 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 outside of the city and a margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, in Toronto.