U.S. trade war impacting home sales and prices in Toronto: Royal LePage report

A real estate sign is displayed in front of a house in Toronto on Wednesday, Sept.29, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler

While the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is expected to see a bump in home prices in 2025, previous forecasts have been revised to reflect the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to a new report by Royal LePage.

On Tuesday, the real estate brokerage released its House Price Survey and Market Forecast, indicating that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA in the first quarter of 2025 decreased 2.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,146,100.

In the city of Toronto specifically, the aggregate price of a home decreased 3.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,124,600 in the first quarter.

“During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home dipped year-over-year to $1,693,200, while the median price of a condominium decreased to $686,700,” the report reads.

“A unique set of circumstances are at play,” the report notes, pointing to a general sense of unease in buyers due to the growing trade conflict with the United States.

The report adds that U.S. tariffs are negatively impacting the Canadian dollar and global stock markets and those issues, coupled with the impending results of the federal election, are leading Torontonians to hold off on buying and selling.

A survey commissioned as part of the Royal LePage report revealed that 45 per cent of Torontonians said they are not confident in the country’s economy today. Among those in the region looking to purchase a home this year, 66 per cent said the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. has caused them to postpone their plans.

“The spring market has not sprung in Toronto. In fact, we’ve seen a very non-traditional start to the season,” Shawn Zigelstein, a Royal LePage broker, said in a written statement accompanying the report.

“Under normal circumstances, this would be a great time for buyers to get into the market: home prices and lending rates are declining, and supply is increasing. It’s clear that consumer confidence is low, and that’s driving a major slowdown in the GTA housing market.”

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, sales volumes were down more than 23 per cent in March compared to a year prior, following double-digit declines in the month of February.

Looking ahead, Zigelstein expects a late spring market could emerge following the federal election, if the situation with the U.S. does not deteriorate further.

“It’s important to distinguish that we’re seeing a market shaped by caution, not desperation. Inventory is increasing and new listings are continuing to come online, but sellers – in the vast majority of cases – are not panicking.”