Toronto home sales expected to rise 12% this year, but board says January saw drop

A real estate sign is displayed in front of a house in Toronto on Wednesday, Sept.29, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says it is forecasting a 12.4 per cent increase in home sales for 2025, with 76,000 properties changing hands throughout the region as lower borrowing costs lead to improved affordability.

The board expects the average selling price to reach $1,147,000, up 2.6 per cent compared with last year, with stronger price growth for single-family homes.

“A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer in a press release.

“However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence.”

The report cited data from Ipsos which showed 28 per cent of survey respondents say they are likely to buy a home in 2025, while 37 per cent said they are likely to sell a home. Both results were in line with 2024 polling.

First-time buyers accounted for 42 per cent of intending homebuyers.

Davelle Morrison, a broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., said competition is already heating up, especially at the “lower end of the market” — homes priced around $1 million.

“Above that, things are a little slower, but there’s still interest,” said Morrison.

“We’re really saying to people that this is a good time to buy, partly because there is some uncertainty, but also because rates are low.”

With the threat of tariffs from the U.S. clouding Canada’s economic outlook and potential effects on the real estate market, Morrison said some clients are hesitant to place an offer.

“If everybody else is afraid and concerned, you’re better off acting now because now you’re going to get a much better price,” she said.

“If you wait until everything is all great and rosy, then you’re going to be competing with everybody else who was too afraid to act right now, and the prices are just going to get higher and higher.”

In January, TRREB said home sales fell 7.9 per cent compared with the first month of last year, with 3,847 transactions recorded.

The average selling price was $1,040,994, an increase of 1.5 per cent compared with January 2024. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was up 0.44 per cent year-over-year.

There were 12,392 new listings in the Greater Toronto Area last month, up 48.6 per cent year-over-year.

In the City of Toronto, there were 1,386 sales in January, a 4.7 per cent decrease from last year. For the rest of the GTA, home sales dropped 9.6 per cent to 2,461.

Sales of semi-detached homes throughout the GTA rose 2.9 per cent in January compared with a year ago.

All other property types saw year-over-year declines. Condos recorded the largest drop at 12.1 per cent, followed by detached houses at 8.4 per cent and townhouses at 4.2 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 5, 2025.