Chow and Tory would be locked in tight race for mayor: poll

David Valentin of Liaison Strategies breaks down a poll showing Olivia Chow and John Tory in a close race for mayor if both run.

A new poll shows Mayor Olivia Chow and former mayor John Tory would be locked in a tight race if they both run in the municipal election next year, with Chow maintaining a small lead.

According to the poll, conducted by Liaison Strategies, Chow would win 39 per cent of decided voters if the election were held today, versus 35 per cent for Tory.

Neither Chow nor Tory have declared their candidacy so far.

Coun. Brad Bradford, who has been critical of Chow on council, has said he plans to run. According to the poll, he would win 16 per cent support among decided voters if the election were held today. While he still lags far behind Chow and Tory, his support has doubled since another poll in July showed him at eight per cent support.

Anthony Furey, who ran in the last mayoral race, would garner six per cent support, while four per cent would choose someone else and six per cent were undecided.

Speaking with CP24, Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin said Tory remains a wildcard in the race, someone who would bring both strong name recognition and some baggage.

“He hasn’t really been quiet for the last months. He’s been on the radio, he’s been around town. So this is someone who is expressing some level of interest in the race,” Valentin said. “But I think if (Tory) wasn’t there, as we see when it’s just Mr. Bradford running, if (Chow) was facing a wide field of candidates, she would probably be performing a lot better.”

Previous polls have showed a similar matchup between the current and former mayor. A Liaison poll in October showed Chow leading Tory by six percentage points instead of four.

When it comes to Bradford, Valentin said he is gaining momentum, but would have to continue doing so to be competitive.

“The biggest barrier to Mr. Bradford’s success is name recognition, and so what we’ve seen since July is he’s been doing more events,” Valentin said. “He’s declared he’s actually running for mayor. That always helps, telling people what you’re doing, and his ratings have gone up as a result.”

Chow’s popularity has declined

The survey also asked Toronto residents whether they approve of the job Chow is doing, with 53 per cent saying they approve and 40 per cent saying they disapprove.

That marks a decline in popularity for Chow, whose approval rating sat at about 60 per cent a year ago, while 31 per cent disapproved of the job she was doing at the time.

Finch LRT opening viewed as failure

Looking at the recent opening of the Finch West LRT, Liaison found that an overwhelming majority of Toronto residents think the opening of the new transit line was very unsuccessful (62 per cent) while eight per cent thought it was somewhat unsuccessful.

Just 13 per cent of respondents thought the line’s opening was somewhat successful while five per cent thought it was very successful and 12 per cent were not sure.

Nearly a quarter of respondents (23 per cent) didn’t know or weren’t sure whether the line had even opened.

Some 54 per cent of respondents said they hold Metrolinx accountable for making sure the line is reliable and well-maintained, while 21 per cent said it was the TTC’s responsibility and nine per cent said it was a shared responsibility.

Metrolinx was responsible for building and maintaining the one, while the TTC is responsible for operating it.

Chow vowed to make improvements to speed up the line by giving it signal priority after many riders said the $3.7 billion LRT was either slower or the same speed as the buses it replaced.

A Toronto runner who regularly races TTC vehicles on foot was able to beat the LRT by 18 minutes.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Torontonians via Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) from Dec. 19-21 to get the results. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.