Tinseltown vs. Hogtown. Hollywood vs. Hollywood North. The World Series heads to Toronto this week with the Los Angeles Dodgers hoping to repeat as league champions while the Toronto Blue Jays are looking for their first title since 1993. As they were at the start of the season, the Dodgers are the betting favourites to win this year’s fall classic with the Blue Jays considered the underdogs. “Nervous, a little bit of an upset tummy,” one fan told CTV News outside the Rogers Centre. “But I think we can do it.” While L.A. has dominated their opponents the entire postseason, dropping just one of the 10 playoff games they’ve played, the Blue Jays and Dodgers are close when it comes to a number of statistics. Toronto’s record of 94-68 is only slightly better than the Dodgers’ 93-69, but it was enough to earn the Jays home field advantage. Both teams play well at home, with the Jays boasting a home record of 54-27 compared to the Dodgers’ 52-29. Where the Blue Jays excel is in come-from-behind wins, leading the league with 49. But the Dodgers own the season series between these two teams, taking two of three from the Blue Jays in August. L.A. won the first two games by a combined score of 14-2, while Toronto won game three 5-4. And then there’s the payroll. While both teams are big spenders, L.A. has doled out far more cash for stars like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. “The Dodgers payroll is closer to $350 million whereas the blue jays is about $250 million,” says University of Toronto engineering professor and analytics expert Tim Chan. “So, $100 million is a huge gap. That’s another Shohei Ohtani or two that they can afford with that difference.” But Chan points out that statistics only tell one part of the story. “In the playoffs it all comes down to a few good pitches, a few good hits,” he says. “Up and down the line up, (Toronto) is a team that steps up and is really more than the sum of its parts.” Still, L.A. boasts one of the strongest pitching rotations in baseball which includes their $700-million-man Ohtani, who is fresh off a game four performance in the National League Championship Series (NLCS) that included 10 strikeouts as a pitcher and three homeruns as a hitter. While Ohtani was crowned the NLCS MVP, the Japanese star has struggled this postseason hitting just .220. By comparison, ALCS MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a .442 batting average in 11 playoff games with six home runs and 12 RBIs. At least one statistician, Jeffrey Rosenthal, is giving a slight advantage to Toronto. “I did a simple statistical model… I am currently giving Toronto a 52.46 per cent chance of winning the World Series,” Rosenthal says, while admitting he is a biased Toronto Blue Jays fan. Rosenthal says he considered the two teams’ records, home field advantage and other statistics in his model and believes playing at home should give the Jays a boost. “If they can win at home and hold on a little bit while they are away, they could do it,” he says.
