Canada data centre capacity could soar to 20 GW in planned projects: government document

The area of Olds, Alta., where Synapse Real Estate Corp. is planning a data centre complex with 1.4 gigawatts of natural gas-fired power generation is shown on Thursday, June 4, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lauren Krugel

OTTAWA — A document prepared for the federal artificial intelligence minister to use when pitching international investors on Canada’s AI ecosystem identifies a massive proposed increase in Canada’s data centre capacity.

But spokespeople for the government pushed back strongly on the figure, saying it is not a projection of the capacity Canada expects to build, and the total capacity will be much less.

It says Canada currently has about 337 megawatts of AI data centre capacity, and there are more than 20 gigawatts — or 20,000 megawatts — in projects that are “under planning or development.”

The number was included in a presentation prepared by a government department for Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon to use with international investors. It was obtained by The Canadian Press through access-to-information.

“With AI expected to proliferate in the coming years, crowding out existing markets, more investors are seeking alternative destinations to host data centres,” the presentation says.

The figure was featured in a pitch deck prepared by Innovation, Science and Economic Development for Solomon which was signed by Associate Deputy Minister Mark Schaan. A government website lists it as received on Jan. 8, 2026.

“Further to your request for a short slide deck on Canada’s artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem, suitable for use with international investors, please find the product attached,” the document says.

Not all projects will go ahead

A statement from Solomon’s office said the minister “did not use this deck or cite the 20 GW figure in any external engagements, including with investors or international counterparts.”

The planned projects come as opposition to new data centres has been emerging in communities across the country.

Solomon’s office said the 20 GW figure “was a high-level, point-in-time snapshot of publicly announced and proposed private-sector projects across Canada. It brought together projects at very different stages of development, from early proposals to more advanced plans, and was intended to illustrate the scale of market interest at that time.”

The statement said not all of those projects will go ahead.

“These projects remain subject to commercial decisions, financing, electricity availability, regulatory approvals, and engagement with provinces, municipalities, utilities, Indigenous communities and local communities,” it said.

“Most of this proposed capacity is not expected to proceed, and projects that do proceed may move forward on different timelines or at different scales than originally proposed.”

The statement also pointed to numbers in the government’s recent national AI strategy.

“Estimates vary, but analysis suggests Canada will require 5.5 gigawatts (GW) worth of AI compute for its commercial players by 2030. Much of this will be delivered through large-scale operations by hyperscalers serving both the domestic and foreign markets,” that strategy says.

An earlier briefing note for Solomon, prepared in August 2025, gives a slightly higher total for the planned data centre capacity. It states that “Canada’s proposed list of AI data centres could bring it to second place in the G7, if built up to 22.1 GW as proposed.”

It notes much of that new capacity would go toward the largest U.S. tech companies.

“If all of the proposed AI data centre projects were built, Canada would trail only the U.S. within the G7 in compute capacity, but with much of this capacity used to support the U.S. hyperscalers.”

‘Big threat to the environment’

Opposition to data centres has been rising in communities across Canada.

In late June, protesters rallied in Vancouver to demonstrate against the opening of AI data centres.

Earlier that month, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said no to a massive data centre southeast of Winnipeg.

He cited the sheer size of the project, saying the energy it will consume and its impact on the community outweigh the limited gains. He said there is “a big threat to the environment and not much benefit to the economy.”

In Olds, Alta., residents have been rallying against a proposed 10-building campus with a total of 1.4 gigawatts of gas-fired power generation.

In Hamilton, Ont., a sprawling data centre campus proposal on the harbourfront has sparked fierce pushback from local residents. A motion underway at city council has proposed a moratorium on new data centres.

At a meeting in June, residents expressed a variety of concerns, including that large data centres could strain the electricity grid and drive up utility bills, and that round-the-clock noise, water pollution and heat radiating from a data centre would be most felt by neighbourhoods already bearing a disproportionate share of Hamilton’s industrial burden.

The January pitch deck prepared for Solomon to use with international investors lists reasons why Canada is the “foremost destination for new data centres,” including the country’s six data centre operators and tax credits.

“Canada has a stable electricity grid powered by abundant clean sources at affordable prices backed by consistent regulations,” the document says.

The majority of the proposed data centre capacity is located in Alberta. The August 2025 government document, labelled as “commercially confidential,” says that capacity will not be powered by electricity.

“Alberta’s AI Data Center Strategy aims to attract $100 billion in investment. Projects to date amount to over 18 GW, which would be supported by natural gas power plants,” it says.

“If 18 GW were added supported by natural gas, this could generate 20 MT CO2e emissions or almost 3% of Canada’s total emissions in 2023.”

With files from Jordan Omstead in Hamilton, Ian Bickis in Winnipeg, and Lauren Krugel in Olds, Alta.

Anja Karadeglija, The Canadian Press