Sask. budget prioritizes affordability promises, forecasts small surplus amidst trade war

WATCH: Finance Minister Jim Reiter explains the approach on tariffs the province took in its 2025-26 budget.

The Saskatchewan government is prioritizing affordability promises from the fall election campaign and highlighting a modest forecasted surplus of $12 million in its 2025-26 budget, that comes at a time of uncertainty amidst an ongoing trade war with the United States.

Finance Minister Jim Reiter delivered the fiscal update to the assembly on Wednesday – kicking off the spring sitting of the Legislature, that will run through April and into May.

The province says the balanced budget and small surplus is a strong signal of financial management.

Revenues are expected to be $21.1 billion, a six per cent increase from last year, while total expenses are predicted at $21 billion, an increase of $909 million from the 2024-25 budget, the province said.

Reiter admitted though that due to the sporadic implementation and cancellation of tariffs from the U.S. it was impossible to acknowledge the impact they could and will have on the province’s finances this upcoming fiscal year, that begins April 1.

“However, we are not letting the tariff threat prevent us from following through on our commitments to the people of Saskatchewan. Our strong financial position means we are well-positioned to weather the impact of any tariffs that may be imposed on Canada and Saskatchewan,” Reiter said.

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Confidence in its financial position has the province predicting an increasing surplus over the next three years, reaching a projected $216.7 million for the 2028-29 fiscal year.

Reiter admitted that if the tariff situation continues for an extended period – the province will be pushed into a deficit.

“The fact of the matter is, provincial budgets that have been released, it’s not like they have a separate account of money that they are setting aside just in case for contingency,” Reiter said.

“We don’t know what the tariffs are going to do or what the cost is going to be, they’re changing by the day it seems. You do see an analysis in the budget, Ministry of Finance officials have done an analysis, but it just shows how uncertain times are.”

According to the province, the budget is based on the average private sector forecast as of Feb. 19, 2025 – prior to any tariffs coming into effect.

The budget analysis on the tariff threat looks at a worst-case scenario of the effects caused by one year of the trade action imposed by the U.S. on March 4 – which includes a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy and 25 per cent on all other Canadian exports.

Assuming that an average of 20 per cent of orphaned exports from Saskatchewan find new markets and 50 per cent of displaced imports can be sourced from new suppliers – the tariff scenario could reduce the value of Sask. exports to the U.S. by $8.2 billion (30.4 per cent), reduce real GDP to $4.9 billion (5.8 per cent), and reduce revenue to the province by up to $1.4 billion.

Reiter said the government believes the best way to weather tariffs is to be in a strong financial position.

“We focused on education, health care, community safety and affordability. Beyond that we’re very prudent with expenditures to keep costs low to get in a surplus position,” Reiter said.

“If the tariffs are on for an extended period of time it will push us into a deficit position, but if they’re not we are comfortable with where we are sitting,” he added.

Premier Scott Moe claimed that what makes Saskatchewan’s budget unique is that there are no last-minute claw backs from election and throne speech promises due to U.S. tariffs.

“This is unlike what we see in some other areas of the nation right now where we have provincial governments that are walking away from commitments that they may have made in a campaign or commitments they may have made over the course of the past year in the name of tariffs and other reasons they may be faced with,” Moe said.

Moe added while the ongoing trade war represents the most significant economic challenge Saskatchewan has face in some time, they are “not walking away from commitments they made to Saskatchewan people.”

NDP leader Carla Beck criticized the budget’s lack of contingencies for the ongoing trade war with the U.S.

“In this budget we see no measures to protect workers, producers, business and industry from tariffs,” she told reporters Wednesday.

Beck said the budget makes it seem like Scott Moe and the Sask. Party are “asleep at the wheel at a time when Saskatchewan people need them to be alert and responsive.”

“Unfortunately, this budget will be very little comfort for people who are worried about their jobs and their futures because of Donald Trump’s tariffs,” Beck said.

Beck argued that tariff contingency funds do not count as “walking away from commitments” and pointed to Alberta, New Brunswick and B.C. including them in their recent budgets.

“But this Sask. Party budget offers no such help, only cuts to health care and education,” she said.

According to the province, gross debt is sitting at more than $34.8 billion and is expected to grow to more than $38.3 billion for the 2026-27 budget.

Gross debt is the sum of all liabilities that a province owes and is obligated to pay. It includes loans from financing debts, debts related to pensions and other obligations.

The current fiscal year’s budget that finishes at the end of March is expected to record a $660 million deficit.

Affordability

As promised throughout last fall’s provincial election campaign by the Sask. Party – the budget includes several affordability initiatives that the province says will make life cheaper for all residents.

Many of the measures were already announced as part of the Saskatchewan Affordability Act – which was introduced in December. The province says more than $250 million in tax savings are included in the budget – in addition to the $2 billion in annual affordability measures.

In a budget news release on Wednesday, the province highlighted several tax breaks including raising the child exemption and seniors supplement by $500 per year for the next four years, touted by the province as the largest personal income tax reduction in Saskatchewan since 2008.

There is also a planned increase of two per cent to monthly income assistance provided through the Saskatchewan Income Support (SIS) program and Saskatchewan Assured Income for Disability (SAID) programs, along with a 25 per cent increase to the disability and caregiver tax credits.

Beck called the two per cent increase “fine” but not sufficient to meet the constant cost of living increases, with Wotherspoon noting it will be about $40 per month.

“I think anyone who has paid rent, gotten groceries, put gas in their car or has had to try to balance a budget understands that $40 a month on top of many years of not meeting inflation and needs doesn’t go very far,” Beck said.

For parents and guardians, the province says it is planning to double the Active Families Benefit refundable tax credit from $150 to $300 per child and is doubling the income threshold to qualify for the program to $120,000. The goal is to make children’s sports, arts, cultural and recreational activities more affordable, the province added.

The province also announced the return of the Home Renovation Tax Credit. Homeowners will be able to save up to $420 per year in renovation expenses, seniors are eligible to save as much as $525.

For students, an announced increase to the Graduate Retention Program of 20 per cent to a max of $24,000 is planned, the province said.

The small business tax rate will remain at one per cent which the province claims will help save more than $50 million in corporate income taxes for more than 35,000 small businesses in Saskatchewan.

A reduction to education property tax mill rates was also announced. It was done to absorb the increase in property assessment values and aims to make this assessment year revenue neutral, saving property owners more than $100 million annually, according to the province.

The budget did list two tax increases. The Provincial Sales Tax (PST) will now be included on vape products. Additionally, the annual road service charge on electric vehicles registered in the province will double from $150 to $300. Both changes take effect on June 1, 2025.

Health care

The Ministry of Health receives $8.1 billion, a record amount and an increase of $485 million from last year while the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) will receive a 5.6 per cent increase, totalling $4.9 billion, the province said.

On the topic of acute care, the government highlighted investments to support its goal to complete 450,00 surgeries within four years.

Regina’s Pasqua Hospital is set to receive a robot-assisted surgery program – while funding aimed at adding 100 acute medicine and specialized beds to increase capacity at Saskatoon City Hospital was re-highlighted.

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The province also plans to expand specialist capabilities and physician staffing at the neonatal ICU in Prince Albert.

The Saskatchewan Cancer Agency will also receive $279 million in 2025-26, up $30 million from last year.

In the realm of cancer care, the province says the funding will go towards screening programs for cervical, lung, and breast cancer. The province has lowered the screening eligibility for breast cancer to 43 – while it plans to add a second mobile mammography bus to assist in screening capacity in rural areas and the north.

The budget will also support the province’s Health and Human Resources Action Plan.

The program aims to add 10 additional training seats for physicians for a total of 150 and support 65 full time nursing positions in 30 rural and northern locations. Additionally, the plan seeks to support retention efforts, such as providing funding for physician fee increases and incentives for specialist physicians in areas of high demand.

The plan was launched in 2022 to deal with short staffing in the sector.

In terms of capital investments, the budget includes funding for construction at the Prince Albert Victoria Hospital, Weyburn General Hospital and Saskatoon Urgent Care Centre, in addition to long-term care capacity in Regina, La Ronge and Grenfell.

Additional urgent care centres in Moose Jaw, Prince Albert and North Battleford as well as second locations in Regina and Saskatoon are planned.

NDP MLA Trent Wotherspoon argued that health care spending is actually down and not a record amount as the Sask. Party claims.

“They’re saying something else, of course they are not very honest on budget day, or most days,” Wotherspoon said.

He pointed to the 2024-25 health budget forecast in the document surpassing the budget total in 2025-26.

“It shows that they are planning to cut, that they are planning to spend less this year than they were last year,” he added.

Education

This budget includes a 0.3 per cent increase to education as a whole, or $14 million from the previous budget for a total of just over $4.4 billion.

The Ministry of Education, which encompasses pre-kindergarten to Grade 12, will receive $3.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion reserved for education, which represents an increase of 5.5 per cent or $183.5 million from the last budget.

Following a lengthy labour dispute between the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation (STF) and the province centred on class size and complexity, a third-party arbitration board ruled class complexity must be included in any new collective bargaining agreement.

As part of that ruling, $130 million is included in the budget to fund a new teacher collective agreement and to address pressures of growing student enrolment.

The province had announced 76 relocatable classrooms in February – with the budget putting forward funding to support that.

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Saskatchewan’s 27 school divisions will receive $2.4 billion for school operating funding, $191.3 million for school infrastructure, as well as $54.4 million to address non-teacher salary increases, transportation and inflation, and to implement 50 of the 200 specialized support classrooms being added over the next four years.

There will be $2 million reserved for improving literacy rates from Kindergarten to Grade 3. The budget also noted funding to begin planning for one new replacement school and preplanning for four new schools.

The Ministry of Advanced Education will receive $788 million of the total education budget, which will include operating and capital funding, as well as funding for new training seats for nursing related professions, development of physician assistant training programs, preventative maintenance funding, and a student aid fund including scholarships and bursaries.

The rest of the education budget will be going towards the Ministry of Immigration and Career Training, boards of education, Saskatchewan Polytechnic, regional colleges, Saskatchewan Student Aid Fund, Saskatchewan Apprenticeship and Trade Certification Commission and the Saskatchewan Distance Learning Corporation.

Much like health care, Wotherspoon said it’s a similar case for education.

“A cut there as well in the spending for this year compared to what they spent last year,” he said.

He suggested the reason may be to make a claim of a small surplus, which was announced at $12 million.

“All while Saskatchewan people are asked to pay more and are taking the hit for the mismanagement of this government and the cost that they have stuck on Saskatchewan people,” Wotherspoon said.

Beck said they are interested to see the dollar amounts that are rolled out to school divisions.

“But we know that inflation continues to impact their budgets, we know that we continue to see an increased number of students in this province, so status quo means cuts,” Beck said, adding that any advertised increases to spending is under inflationary pressures once again.

Community Safety

The province committed to several initiatives to improve safety across Saskatchewan, including the addition of 100 new municipal police officers and 14 new Safer Communities and Neighbourhoods personnel.

As part of the community safety budget, the Ministry of Corrections, Policing, and Public Safety will receive $784 million, with $119 million going towards the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency, and $274 million for the Ministry of Justice and Attorney General, according to the budget document.

RCMP operations will receive increased funding of $8 million, including a $2 million increase for the RCMP First Nations Policing Program.

Funding will be provided to support the expansion of the Saskatoon Correctional Centre and to support efforts at the Saskatchewan Police College.

The Saskatchewan Marshals Service will receive an additional $4 million – which will go towards hiring 50 officers. The province said the Marshals Service, which is intended to support RCMP and municipal services, is expected to become operational in the “coming months.”

The enhanced law enforcement presence extends to the U.S. border, with the province vowing that it will “work in partnership with provincial policing services and federal agencies to boost law enforcement’s presence near the border.”

There will also be funding for interpersonal violence programs and services, including second stage housing, as well as funding to create a more accessible court system.

According to the province, initiatives are planned to reduce the amount of time police spend in court, so they can spend more time on policing duties in their communities.

Beck said these additions to public safety have simply been more bureaucracy.

“The reality is that we’ve not seen the boots on the ground that have been promised, we’ve seen them invest in more bureaucracy, sometimes in hats,” Beck said, referring to the $40,000 spent on fewer than 100 hats for the new marshals service.

More provincial budget coverage can be found on both the CTV News Regina and Saskatoon websites.