There is “no obvious challenger” among Conservative politicians in Canada to Prime Minister Mark Carney, according to a new Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News. The poll, which randomly surveyed Canadians by phone and online between July 28 to 30, provided a list of Conservative politicians and asked which would have a chance to defeat Carney if they were leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. According to the poll, 16 per cent said former prime minister Stephen Harper, while current Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre received 15 per cent of the vote. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, sits at 11 per cent. But 33 per cent of Canadians surveyed said “none can defeat” Carney. Other notable Conservatives, including Peter MacKay, Rona Ambrose, Danielle Smith, Jean Charest and Lisa Raitt, each received less than 10 of the votes respectively, while Jason Kenney, Mark Mulroney, Erin O’Toole, Andrew Scheer, Leslyn Lewis, Tim Houston, Jamil Jivani and Caroline Elliott each received five per cent or less. Speaking to CTV News, Nanos Research founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos says there is both “good news and bad news” in the polling for Poilievre. “Only 15 per cent of Canadians think that he (does) have a chance to defeat Mark Carney, so he’s not seen as a prime minister or a close challenger. That’s the bad news,” Nanos said. “The good news is (there) doesn’t seem to be anyone in the bushes, the shadows, in the wings that people identify as a real alternative to Pierre Poilievre.” In July, Poilievre stirred up some Conservative infighting after he referred to the team behind defeated B.C. Conservative leadership candidate Caroline Elliott as “Liberal lobbyists from out east.” Asked why there has been no public push for a Conservative leadership alternative despite the lagging polling numbers, Nanos pointed to Carney’s “middle-of-the-road” policies such as cancelling the consumer carbon tax and prioritizing energy projects like a pipeline. “I think for a lot of middle-of-the-road voters and perhaps conservatives that are a little progressive, Mark Carney actually has a lot of appeal,” Nanos added. This latest poll also shows a similar trend when it comes to Carney’s personal popularity among Canadians since winning the federal election in 2025. The most recent Nanos Research poll, released on July 28, shows Carney remains the preferred prime minister at 54 per cent support with Poilievre at 18.2 per cent. But while overall federal voting intention remains with the governing Liberals, that gap is smaller compared to personal leadership numbers with the Liberals at 44.7 per cent and the Conservatives at 29.5 per cent support, according to Nanos Research. The NDP, meanwhile, has 12.7 per cent of support. According to Nanos, the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump has largely allowed Carney to enjoy an extended honeymoon phase with Canadians. “Consumer confidence is flat. There’s no deal with the Americans. People are worried about paying for the bills, and they’re very grumpy,” Nanos said. “But the thing is, it looks like right now, they’re not blaming the Liberal government or Mark Carney for this.” Nanos tells CTV News that the fall could be a big test for the prime minister with the Quebec election and the Alberta referendum coming up. “He’s had a prolonged honeymoon because he’s been so proactive and he’s been so busy out there trying to build trade relationships and attract investment in Canada,” Nanos said. “He’s been driving the agenda. He’s not going to have as much control over the agenda in the fall. That’ll be a big test for him and this government.” Methodology: Nanos Research, RDD dual-frame hybrid telephone and online random survey, July 28th to 30th, 2026, n=1104, accurate 3.0 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
