EDMONTON -- The federal election isn't expected to produce much change in the Prairies provinces, but some political experts say if there are ridings to watch, they are in urban areas.
The 2019 federal vote saw the Conservatives take over all 14 ridings in Saskatchewan. The Tories also won all but one seat in Alberta and half of the ridings in Manitoba.
One of the biggest upsets was longtime Liberal Ralph Goodale, then public safety minister, losing his Regina-Wascana seat to the Conservatives.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct political studies professor at the University of Manitoba, says he expects the big changes that happened in the West two years ago will mostly remain in place.
But he says the shrinking popularity of Progressive Conservative Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister due to his government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic might play to the Liberal party's advantage.
"The provincial Progressive Conservative -- its brand is somewhat tarnished right now, much like the United Conservative Party for (Premier) Jason Kenney in Alberta," Adams says.
"That might have an impact on the Conservative vote in the federal ridings in this election in Winnipeg specifically."
He says ridings to watch are in the provincial capital, particularly Winnipeg South and Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley.
"As Winnipeg South goes, so goes the nation," Adams says.
Last election, Liberal Doug Eyolfson lost his Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley seat to Conservative Marty Morantz. The two face each other again this year.
Howard Leeson, professor emeritus at the University of Regina's department of politics and international studies, says the urban riding Goodale lost in 2019 is worth watching, but he doesn't think the Liberals can take it back.
"Broadly speaking, they have almost no organization in Saskatchewan," Leeson says of the Liberals. "(The party) has been in serious decline here for several decades and they've really done nothing on the ground to recover that."
He says a non-urban constituency in northern Saskatchewan is also of interest.
The Liberals have recruited Buckley Belanger to run in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River. Belanger recently stepped down as legislature member there for the Saskatchewan NDP.
"Politics up there is very, very local. It's a very big constituency, which is heavily Indigenous, and the politics is quite different from that in the south," Leeson says.
Belanger has a good chance of winning, he says, and could be in a Liberal cabinet.
"I think that would be a good thing for Indigenous people, in terms of the kinds of services they need up there."
Although the NDP is the official Opposition in each Prairie province, Leeson says it's a different party federally.
"There has always been a fair gulf between the federal leadership and provincial leaderships on questions of natural resources in particular.
"But in Saskatchewan it's even gotten worse with the present leader (Jagmeet Singh), who has not paid much attention to Saskatchewan at all."
The rift has also played out in Alberta. In the last election, NDP leader and former premier Rachel Notley said she would not support Singh because of his opposition to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, says she doesn't expect any major gains for the party in Alberta.
The only NDP riding is Edmonton Strathcona, a stronghold for the party for more than a decade.
"The Alberta provincial NDP is a pretty centrist party on a lot of issues, particularly around the environment and development of energy resources," she says.
"Even if people might be saying that they are going to vote for the federal NDP in Alberta -- outside of a few places in Edmonton -- that may not happen once they take a closer look at the difference between the federal NDP and the provincial NDP."
Young says the ridings to watch are in Calgary and Edmonton, where the Liberals could win seats.
The Liberals, including former natural resources minister Amarjeet Sohi, lost every riding they held in 2019 to the Conservatives.
Young says there could be a tight race in Edmonton Centre, where Liberal Randy Boissonnault is looking to take his seat back from Conservative James Cumming.
She also says the Liberals have good chances in Calgary Skyview, Calgary Confederation and Calgary Centre.
While the true battleground in Canada will be in Ontario and parts of Quebec, Young says the Liberals are expected to use the Alberta premier's unpopularity outside the province against the Conservatives.
"We've seen some signals that the federal Liberals are going to run against Premier Jason Kenney in some ways, especially in how they have been criticizing the way the pandemic has been dealt with," she says, referring to Alberta lifting most of its COVID-19 restrictions.
"They might be trying to say, 'Look, Canada, you don't want to be governed in the way Alberta is being governed."'
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 19, 2021.
