Three-way race shaping up ahead of 2015 federal election: poll

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair appear in this composite image. (Sean Kilpatrick, Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Two years before the next federal election, Canada’s major political parties are in a three-way race, but the “honeymoon” period for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau appears to be over, a new Ipsos Reid/CTV News poll suggests.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would get 32 per cent of the vote, up two points since the end of June. The Liberals would garner 31 per cent of the vote and the New Democrats 26 per cent.

One in ten surveyed voters is undecided.

Since May, the Liberals have lost a six-point lead, suggesting the surge in support following Trudeau’s election as party leader is starting to dwindle.

However, 69 per cent of surveyed Canadians still believe that Trudeau has the best chance of defeating Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the next election. Trudeau’s admission that he smoked marijuana at least once since being elected as an MP did not seem to affect his level of support, according to the poll.

Meanwhile, only 31 per cent of decided voters believe that NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is Harper’s most formidable opponent.

Even among NDP supporters, more than 40 per cent believe the Liberals have the best chance of defeating the government.

But the Conservatives continue to lead the way on economic issues. Among voters who said the economy is the most important issue, 45 per cent believe the Conservatives are the best economic policy managers, followed by 28 per cent who chose the Liberals and 14 per cent who chose the NDP.

Tories trailing on environment, health care 

On issues like the environment, social services and health care, the Conservatives did not fare as well.

Only three per cent of those surveyed said the Conservatives are the best party to manage environmental issues.

The Harper government has drawn the ire of environmentalists and affected community groups over the proposed Keystone XL pipeline project, which would carry bitumen from the Alberta oilsands to the refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Thirty-six per cent of surveyed Canadians said the Green Party would best handle the environment portfolio, followed by the NDP (25 per cent), the Liberals (11 per cent).

Here is the breakdown of perceived party competence on other issues:

Foreign-born voters and the middle class

The poll also suggests that the Conservatives have an edge when it comes to voters who were born outside of Canada. The party has a 10-point lead (37 per cent versus 27 per cent) over the Liberals among foreign-born voters. The NDP would get 25 per cent of the foreign-born vote.

Among Canadian-born voters, on the other hand, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied with 32 per cent and 31 per cent of the vote, respectively.

When asked which party and leader best understand middle-class families and the pressures they face, the NDP and Mulcair came out on top with 38 per cent of the voters’ support, followed by the Liberals under Trudeau (30 per cent) and the Harper government (26 per cent).

The Ipsos Reid/CTV News poll surveyed 1,305 Canadians online between Sept. 18 and 20. The poll is accurate to within +/-3.5 percentage points.