The federal NDP is about to elect a new leader. Is it Avi Lewis’s race to lose?

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WINNIPEG – Federal New Democrats from across the country are descending on Winnipeg, to talk pressing policy, plot political strategy and decide who their next leader will be before the weekend’s over.

After a seven-month leadership campaign that struggled to capture Canadians’ attention, party loyalists and former senior New Democrats CTV News has been speaking with say there’s a lot at stake coming out of this convention for the NDP.

“Since the 2025 loss, New Democrats have been missing from the national conversation. This weekend isn’t just about a new leader: it’s about whether the party can claw its way back to relevance,” said Kathleen Monk, principal at Monk & Associates and former director of communications to the late Jack Layton.

Monk said the race has also demonstrated that there’s a strong appetite within the party for more than incremental change.

“If we see a decisive first-ballot win on Sunday, it will be because members wanted to send a clear signal about the direction they expect the party to take,” she said.

That direction, New Democrats hope, would be back towards electoral gains and getting results for everyday Canadians.

Lewis seen as front-runner

The perception heading into convention weekend is that after two official debates, numerous campaign rallies and months of campaign fundraising, the race may be Avi Lewis’ to lose.

“Not only is Avi Lewis the frontrunner, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him win on the first ballot,” said Karl Belanger, former senior NDP staffer and current president of Traxxion Strategies.

According to his team, Lewis – a longtime figure in progressive politics and author of “The Leap Manifesto” – signed up new members in “nearly every riding,” and “earned endorsements from a broad coalition of leaders across the country.”

The party is using a preferential ballot that asks members to rank by number the leadership contestants in order of their preference. Voters do not need to rank every candidate, and they can opt to rank just one.

Those CTV News spoke with cautioned that the outcomes of leadership races across party lines are traditionally hard to gauge because it’s a members-only vote, and those memberships had to be locked in months ago. There’s also the unpredictability factor when it comes to how ranking down-ballot may play out.

“I’m expecting Avi Lewis to win,” said former NDP leader and CTV News political commentator Tom Mulcair. “Anything’s possible with a ranked ballot, but the math simply doesn’t seem to be there for the other candidates.”

When Mulcair was running for leader, it took four ballots to name him the winner, whereas Layton in 2003, and Jagmeet Singh in 2017, clinched the top job on the first ballot.

The other two of the five candidates whose campaigns have shown momentum and can’t be ruled out as contenders are Heather McPherson, who is the only sitting MP in the race and has a demonstrated record of getting elected, as well as dockworker and longshore union leader Rob Ashton, who members have applauded for his working-class credentials and relatability.

“An anybody-but-Avi movement does exist out there, but the attempt by the McPherson camp to formalize one for the second ballot failed. It still could be the ticket to victory for McPherson or Ashton, should Lewis be unable to secure the leadership after the first round,” Belanger said.

Final pitches, record turnout

Before voting concludes and the new leader is named Sunday, each of the five candidates on the ballot will have one last chance on Saturday to sell themselves, and their vision for the future of the party.

Though, the impression among New Democrats is that many members have already cast their ballots online. Voting opened shortly after the final leadership debate in February and will close on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET.

Candidates have all been encouraging their supporters to vote early, to ensure they lock-in as many votes as possible, but doing so also helps prevent any large swing or horse-trading on the convention floor.

“There could always be a surprise – for example strong union move to Ashton – but I doubt it,” said Mulcair.

So, while the potential for the final day-before-results showcases to dramatically alter the trajectory seems unlikely, it’s not out of the question. As for the still-undecided delegates in the room, the final speeches will help cement how they cast their ballots.

“Every member I have spoken to has already cast their ballot,” Monk said, noting she is not one of them. “I am waiting until Saturday afternoon until I have heard the leaders’ showcases.”

“There are always a number of voters who want to see how the candidates perform at the end of the campaign, what kind of show they put on under the lights of a convention,” said Kim Wright, principal of Wright Strategies and a longtime NDP strategist. “GOTV (get out the vote) efforts in and out of Winnipeg will be important.”

Approximately 2,000 New Democrats are expected to attend the convention, and there are more than 100,000 members enrolled nationwide who are eligible to vote. According to the party, membership grew close to 70 per cent since the race started.

Mulcair told CTV News that these numbers should be interpreted as an indication of Lewis’ organizational strength. Interim leader Don Davies said it’s a sign left-of-centre Canadians turning to the party after seeing how the current Liberal government is governing.

Monk said it also demonstrates “real excitement and hopefully renewal,” as well as “a re-engaged labour movement,” while noting it’s likely candidates also pushed to ensure their backers show up in an effort to demonstrate momentum.

What will job No. 1 be for winner?

No matter who wins, the next leader will be taking the reins of a party that has a long way to go to regain ground lost over the last few federal elections, and with Prime Minister Mark Carney on the precipice of a majority government, potentially years to go before they’ll get a chance to try in any sizeable way.

“More than ever, we need New Democratic voices in this country. We need it in the House of Commons, and so we will be rebuilding,” said NDP MP Jenny Kwan. “Yes, it’s going to be a hard row. I’m not going to sort of pretend that it’s going to be a cakewalk.”

The NDP now hold just six seats in the House of Commons, and as a result of losing official party status, has lost the ability to meaningfully use parliamentary mechanisms to better hold the government to account, or maintain a strong grasp on their “conscience of Parliament” moniker.

“Job No. 1 is to get elected,” Mulcair said. “It’s a bit odd that several candidates have expressed no interest in running, including most importantly Lewis.”

Another major dynamic the next leader will need to navigate is the relationships with their provincial counterparts. The NDP is in power in British Columbia and Manitoba, and is the official opposition in four provinces.

CTV News reached out to all of these leaders and confirmed that only two plan to attend the convention: Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew and Ontario NDP Leader Marit Styles, both of whom will be speaking at the convention.

B.C. Premier David Eby, Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi — whose office made it clear he is not a member of the federal NDP — Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck and Nova Scotia NDP Leader Claudia Chender all said they wouldn’t be taking part.

There’s also an internal party rebuilding that will be required, from riding-level ground games, right up to the candidate roster and national executive. New data also suggests that the next leader will also face an uphill battle in introducing themselves to Canadians, which is always a leading focus coming out of a leadership campaign.

• Almost half of former NDP voters don’t recognize names of leadership candidates: poll

Recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute found that 44 per cent of those surveyed who said they’d voted for the NDP at least once in the last four federal elections do not recognize the names of any of the current leadership candidates.

“The uncertainty and lack of enthusiasm enveloping the race mirrors the party’s current position, as it seeks to establish relevance,” the polling organization said, while noting the online survey was of past voters and not necessarily active card-carrying members.

“The New Democrats’ biggest enemy, now that Mark Carney’s majority is all but secured, is invisibility,” Belanger said. “They have lost party status. They are about to lose the balance of power. The next leader needs to be seen and heard and punch above the weight of the party, through the wall of media indifference.”