Sharan Kaur: Why 2025 changed everything in Canada’s political playbook

Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks with United States President Donald Trump as they take questions from the media at the start of a meeting in the Oval Office in the White House, in Washington, D.C. Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025 in Washington. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

As we close the book on 2025, the Canadian political landscape is not just altered, it is unrecognizable. For those of us within the “bubble,” this year served as a reminder that the old playbooks are obsolete.

In 12 months, we witnessed the fall of a populist juggernaut, the erasure of a major party’s official status, and a pivot toward an economic realism that only few saw coming.

If 2024 was defined by anxiety, 2025 was the year of the “Great Realignment.” A year in politics can seem like an eternity, yet change often arrives in a heartbeat. Looking back, we see the moments that snapped the trajectory of the country. These “small waves” have provided a rare opportunity to recalibrate priorities and capture the quiet frustrations of a changing electorate before the tide turns again.

The Carney pivot: From outsider to architect

The ascension of Mark Carney to prime minister was a “break-glass-in-case-of-emergency” moment for the Liberal Party. By March 2025, it was clear the Trudeau era — rooted in the progressive optimism of 2015 — could no longer withstand the gale-force winds of a global trade war.

Carney didn’t just inherit a party: he redesigned it. He traded “gotcha politics” for the clarity of the balance sheet. His “Elbows Up!” campaign was a masterstroke of Canadian branding, using hockey-rink grit to prove that a technocrat could stand up to a bully.

By winning the leadership and briefly navigating a minority government without a seat in the House — the first to do so since John Turner in 1984 — Carney proved Canadians were hungry for a “disruptor with a resume.”

The fall of bully-style politics: Poilievre’s Carleton defeat

The most shocking map change of the year was Ottawa turning resoundingly red, as Pierre Poilievre losing his own riding of Carleton was a true black swan event.

For two years, the Conservative leader ran a campaign designed specifically to defeat Justin Trudeau; he was already measuring the drapes in the PMO. But when the opponent changed to Carney, Poilievre failed to adapt, still shouting “Axe the Tax” while Carney was busy suspending it to neutralize the weapon. Poilievre’s loss proved that while populism can win a rally, it struggles to hold the centre when the stakes become existential.

The NDP’s existential crisis

To our left, the collapse of the New Democratic Party to just seven seats — losing official party status — is a tragedy for Canadian pluralism. The “confidence and supply” era between New Democrats and Liberals ended not with a bang, but a whimper.

Jagmeet Singh’s resignation as NDP leader underscores a hard truth: You cannot be half-in and half-out of government for years and expect to maintain a distinct brand.

In an existential election, voters gravitated toward the perceived stability of Carney or the protest of the Bloc Quebecois, leaving the NDP a party without a home.

A new peace: Alberta and the pipeline

The most pragmatic shift of the year was the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith last November. The idea of a Liberal prime minister facilitating a million-barrel-per-day bitumen pipeline would have been heresy under the Trudeau era.

However, we must value expertise and “meeting the moment” over partisan purity. By scrapping the emissions cap in exchange for a higher industrial carbon price, Carney chose the possible over the perfect. This deal ended a decade of acrimony with Western Canada, because it was rooted in shared economic survival, not identity politics.

Shadow of the 51st state

We cannot discuss 2025 without mentioning the man across the border. Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his “Liberation Day” tariffs forced Canada into a defensive crouch.

And yet, Trump’s threats to “break us” galvanized a national identity not seen in decades.

This pressure allowed Carney to co-opt Poilievre’s populist energy, rebranding “common sense” as “sovereign stability.” When the two bullies — Trump and Poilievre — met the moment with the same aggressive disposition, Canadians saw an alternative that wasn’t desirable.

Carney utilized this friction, positioning his approach to diplomacy as him being the only adult in the room. The 2025 federal election became a referendum on sovereignty; we chose to be a nation that builds and competes, rather than one that complains.

The CUSMA ‘stress test’

The honeymoon for Carney’s balance sheet politics will meet its ultimate test in July 2026 during the formal CUSMA review. While Carney used Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs to build a wartime-style consensus, the global trade architecture has fundamentally fractured. The Americans are no longer playing by the old rules, and we must accept that the era of effortless duty-free access is over. Tariffs are now a permanent feature of the North American landscape.

This new normal requires a shift of tectonic magnitude for Canadian business. It demands a pivot from reliance to resilience, forcing us to finally dismantle the interprovincial trade barriers that affect more than $530 billion worth goods, which make it harder to ship a crate of beer from Ontario to Quebec than from Toronto to New York state.

Whether ideological purists like it or not, this means Canada must finally embrace its status as a resource superpower. If we are to be our own best customer, the path forward leads through massive investment in the energy sector, linking our natural resources to a modernized national grid.

In 2026, economic sovereignty won’t just be a campaign slogan; it will be the only strategy left for a nation that can no longer afford to live in the shadow of a big brother who has turned into its largest competitor

The ghost of Quebec returns

While Ottawa will be fixated on trade wars, a quiet storm is gathering in Quebec. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the Parti Quebecois have been dominating provincial polls for two years, and the PQ leader has made a third referendum a cornerstone of his 2026 platform.

The risk is that most of Canada is ignoring this, treating separatism as a ‘90s relic.

The reality is the rise of the PQ isn’t just about sovereignty: it’s a reaction to federal immigration levels and perceived overreach. If the PQ wins a majority in October 2026, Carney won’t just be fighting Trump. He’ll be fighting for the very existence of the federation.

Poilievre’s ‘iron grip’ leadership review

Poilievre enters 2026 facing a leadership review in Calgary. He is expected to win by an overwhelming margin, but the optics are deceptive. The high score won’t reflect a party in love, but a party in fear.

Behind the scenes, there is deep disdain for a campaign that lost the unlosable election by failing to pivot when Trudeau stepped down. Poilievre is ruling the CPC with an iron grip, purging dissenters and demanding absolute loyalty.

The question is whether a leader who governs his own party through intimidation can ever hope to build the broad coalition needed to reclaim the centre. While he will sail through his leadership review, watch for internal knives to come out the caucus realizes they may have lost their best shot at power.

To vote or not to vote?

Despite the Liberals’ 2025 surge, the math remains precarious. They sit just one seat shy of a majority, a frustrating “limbo” that’s forced the prime minister’s inner circle into a quiet, aggressive hunt for opposition floor-crossers.

By courting wavering MPs — particularly those frustrated with Poilievre’s style — Carney may be able to gain a functional majority through the back door, securing the stability he needs to survive the year without another trip to the polls.

However, the real wild card isn’t in Ottawa, but in Quebec City. While Carney might want to avoid an election before the CUSMA review is settled, Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet holds the ultimate leverage. If the Bloc Quebecois senses that the provincial PQ wave is strong enough to carry them to a “nationalist” sweep, they won’t hesitate to pull the plug.

For the Bloc, triggering a federal election that aligns with the momentum of Plamondon isn’t just a tactic: It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity to put federalism on trial.

The great Liberal clearance

The “Trudeau era” is officially being flushed out of the system, though the transition has been more of a strategic pruning than a total demolition. While Carney’s entrance didn’t trigger the immediate mass exodus some expected, the “flattening” of the old guard is now undeniable.

The departure of high-profile activists like Steven Guilbeault — whose environmental dogma became untenable against Carney’s resource-heavy “balance sheet” pragmatism — signalled a decisive shift in the party’s ideological centre of gravity.

With rumblings of further departures pending plum ambassadorships, 2025 has become the year of the managed transition.

The most significant movement, however, centres on Chrystia Freeland. While she holds her University-Rosedale seat, her pivot to the global stage is now confirmed. Her upcoming relocation to the U.K. to serve as the Warden of Rhodes House and CEO of the Rhodes Trust has already ignited a high-stakes battle for her “crown jewel” riding.

The names circulating in Liberal circles as potential recruits suggest a total DNA replacement within the party ranks, trading career politicians for non-traditional heavyweights:

• Victor Dodig: The recently retired CIBC CEO would be the ultimate “balance sheet” candidate, signalling a party fully aligned with Bay Street’s vision for growth.

• Dr. Andrew Boozary: A University Health Network executive, University of Toronto faculty member and champion of ending homelessness who offers a “social medicine” lens to the Carney era, bridging the gap between fiscal discipline and compassionate social policy.

• Jennifer Keesmaat: A perennial favourite and former Toronto chief planner who brings the “building and competing” expertise Carney has made central to his mandate.

By replacing the architects of the last decade with these types of private-sector, institutional giants, Carney is building a “government-in-waiting” that looks less like a traditional caucus and more like a corporate board, prepared for a hostile takeover of Canada’s economic future.

The lesson of 2025 is simple: In a world of chaos, competence is the ultimate currency. 2026 will bring its own set of challenges but will also be an opportunity for growth and change.