Sharan Kaur: Carney’s China trade deal isn’t betrayal — it’s survival

Political analyst Sharan Kaur says the Canada-China deal must meet quotas and the federal government may have additional plans to diversify trade.

Sharan Kaur served as the deputy chief of staff for former Liberal finance minister Bill Morneau and is currently a principal at Navigator.

The predictable chorus of disappointment following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s announcement to lower trade barriers with China has already begun.

But it is time for a wake-up call. For too long, Canada’s foreign policy has been an exercise in moral futility, fixated on critiquing the conduct of others while conveniently ignoring the decay of our own strategic options.

In the cold light of 2026, we no longer have the luxury of performative outrage.

The world has changed. With Donald Trump back in the White House and a ‘might-makes-right’ philosophy governing Washington, the old rules are dead. The comfort of a predictable, rule-abiding neighbour to the south has vanished, replaced by a volatile American protectionism that threatens our economic foundation.

In this era of global disorder, Carney’s landmark trade deal with Beijing isn’t a betrayal of our values; it is an act of national survival.

The world has changed

We must be clear-eyed about the stakes. Canada and China share a difficult, often painful history. National security remains a non-negotiable priority, and our Western values will likely never align with Beijing’s domestic operations.

But we must also confront a hard economic truth: Canada is not an island. We are not an economy built to be 100 per cent independent. In a world where our primary partner has turned inward, isolation isn’t just a mistake, it’s a recipe for terminal decline.

To the critics who view this deal as bowing down, I suggest you are looking at the world through a rear-view mirror. While the U.S. becomes increasingly unpredictable, Carney’s engagement with President Xi Jinping recognizes that China has become the more stable variable in our trade equation.

Diplomacy is no longer about finding ‘friends’ who think exactly like us; it is about managing interests in a landscape where the U.S. has abandoned its role as the steady hand of the West.

The deal’s real benefits

Today’s announcement wasn’t a gift to Beijing; it was a calculated exchange for Canadian livelihoods. Allowing up to 49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6.1% tariff may sound like a concession, but consider the context. This volume represents less than 3% of our market, effectively returning us to 2023 levels.

Crucially, the deal mandates that within three years, this must drive Chinese joint-venture investments into Canada. We are protecting auto manufacturing careers by building a domestic supply chain on our terms, rather than watching from the sidelines.

• More opinion and expert analyses

The wins for our agricultural sector are even more undeniable. By March 1, China will drop tariffs on Canadian canola seed from a staggering 85% to roughly 15%, reopening a $4-billion market that was previously under siege.

Combined with the removal of barriers on canola meal, lobsters, and peas, we are unlocking nearly $3 billion in new export orders.

Regional friction is inevitable. Ontario Premier Doug Ford warns of a “foothold,” but Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe correctly sees a “positive step forward.” One is focused on a provincial border; the other is looking at the global horizon. We must understand that strategic flexibility is not a moral surrender.

Approaching diplomacy in 2026 requires us to be pragmatically flexible so that we have the economic strength to protect our values at all. This partnership extends into vital cooperation on public safety — combating narcotics trafficking and money laundering — and secures visa-free access for Canadians.

Engagement is not an endorsement; it is a necessity. By diversifying our partnerships and catalyzing new investment, we are building a more independent Canada. It may be a difficult pill to swallow, but in this climate, isolation is not a policy — it is a slow-motion surrender. This deal is the medicine we need to survive the coming storm.

More from Sharan Kaur

• The dangerous precedent of Poilievre’s support for Maduro’s arrest
• Why 2025 changed everything in Canada’s political playbook
• No, Canada didn’t ‘bow to the bros’ — it grew up