The proposed high-speed rail line between Quebec City and Toronto could cost billions more than the federal government’s estimate, according to a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO). The report estimates the project will cost between $75 billion and $113 billion, compared with the government’s estimate of $60 billion to $90 billion. Among the largest cost drivers is a proposed 15-kilometre tunnel into Montreal, which the PBO says carries significant risk of cost overruns and construction delays. The report estimates each kilometre of tunnel would cost about $169 million. It also projects that every year of delay would add roughly $1.5 billion to the overall price tag. Another major challenge is construction through the Canadian Shield between Ottawa and Peterborough, where difficult terrain could drive up costs. The PBO reviewed 94 high-speed rail projects worldwide and found significant variations in construction costs. Projects in the United Kingdom and the United States were generally more expensive than those in continental Europe and often experienced substantial budget overruns. The report says there is no guarantee Canada will avoid similar outcomes. “Given the institutional similarities between the U.K., U.S. and Canada, an HSR project in Canada may be at risk of similar cost escalation pressures. Construction costs for certain infrastructure projects in Canada have been observed to rise at a faster rate than in comparator countries.” The analysis also does not account for the federal government’s recent decision to include Kingston as a stop on the route. If the change is incorporated into the final plan, costs are expected to rise further. The project has faced opposition from some rural communities that argue construction would be disruptive while providing little direct benefit. The Conservative party has also opposed the proposal, describing it as a costly boondoggle before construction has even begun.
