Nanos survey finds record-high support for Liberals a year after Carney became PM

Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research take a closer look at three April byelections that could push the Carney government into majority status.

At the one-year anniversary of Mark Carney’s tenure as prime minister, the federal Liberals are seeing record-high support, according to the latest data from Nanos Research.

In the polling firm’s most recent ballot tracking, the Liberals are at 47.6 per cent, the Conservatives at 31.1 per cent, and the NDP at 11.2 per cent.

The Conservatives under leader Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, had a double-digit lead over the Liberals ahead of last year’s federal election — before Carney replaced his predecessor Justin Trudeau — but have now been trailing the Liberals for months.

“The last party to hit 47 per cent support in the Nanos ballot track was the Poilievre Conservatives for the tracking ending January 10, 2025,” wrote Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos in the firm’s weekly data drop.

“The Liberals under Carney are at their all-time high in the Nanos tracking for Liberal support,” he added. “On the preferred (prime minister) tracking, Carney is the choice of 56.5 per cent of Canadians while Poilievre trails at 22.0 per cent.”

In an interview on CTV Power Play with Vassy Kapelos on Tuesday, Nanos said he’s never seen anything like the switch from a massive Conservative lead to a Liberal one in such a short period.

“It’s kind of like trading places,” he said. “Think of it this way: If we look at December 2024, if the election was then, we’d be saying ‘Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre.’ He would have won a sweeping majority government.”

He categorized the Conservative drop — from 47 per cent at the height of popularity to the low 30s in just 16 months — as a “massive swing.”

“It speaks to how volatile things are and how fragile,” he said, adding it’s a “cautionary note” for all parties.

Economy, U.S. relations remain top issues

As part of its weekly tracking, Nanos Research also polls for top issues of concern, with jobs and the economy, along with U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. relations, still topping the chart.

In an interview with Kapelos last month, Nanos said trade with the U.S. has still been among the top issues for a year.

When asked by Kapelos how volatile the numbers are, Nanos said concern over Trump has been in either the top or second spot “without exception.”