Minority Liberals narrowly survive high-stakes confidence vote, fending off holiday election

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Liberal government's 2025 budget passes as it survives final confidence vote

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Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government narrowly survived its third confidence vote in as many weeks on Monday, passing the federal budget by a vote of 170-168 and staving off a holiday election.

The vote was a make-or-break one for the Liberal government, which is two seats shy of a majority.

Leading up to the vote, both the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives had made it clear they would vote against the document. That presented multiple possible scenarios, but meant that if all 169 Liberal MPs voted to support the budget, Carney’s government would need support from either two opposition MPs, or have four opposition MPs abstain, in order for the document to pass.

Five MPs abstained from vote

Among the abstentions were two NDP MPs — Lori Idlout and Gord Johns — and House Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, who does not vote.

Conservative MP Shannon Stubbs also abstained, with her office telling CTV News in a statement that she is on medical leave following surgery, and that her “surgical team ordered several weeks of strict bedrest, no speaking, and limited movement to ensure a safe recovery.”

Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux, who announced earlier this month he’s stepping down, also abstained, as he did for the two previous votes on the budget.

His resignation came on the heels of former Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossing the floor to the Liberals, and after sources told CTV News Jeneroux was considering following suit.

Two other Conservative MPs initially appeared to have abstained, citing technical difficulties, including Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer. Though, they later clarified that they were voting “no.”

Aside from Idlout and Johns, the rest of the seven-member NDP caucus voted against the budget.

Interim NDP Leader Don Davies told reporters after the vote that while his caucus does not support the budget, MPs also did not want to trigger an election by all voting against. He said NDP MPs have spent the last two weeks consulting with constituents on the budget.

“It is clear from those conversations that this is a budget that does not address the real needs facing Canadians,” he said. “It fails to meet the moment, deliver transformational change, or address the urgent needs facing Canadians.”

“They did not earn our support,” Davies also said. “We tried to make changes to this budget, but at the same time, again, Canadians clearly don’t want an election right now, and given the serious economic challenges facing our country right now, we don’t think that it would be good for our country.”

While Green Party Leader Elizabeth May told CTV News earlier on Monday she was still in talks with the Liberals — and that her vote may be a last-minute decision — she later said she planned to vote in favour.

“I heard overwhelmingly from my constituents, and Canadians from coast to coast, that they wanted someone to stop an election happening by accident,” May told reporters on Parliament Hill following question period, while also pointing to the areas in which she believes the budget to be “so very deficient.”

May said she was leaning toward voting “no” prior to a meeting with Carney on Monday, during which the prime minister gave her a “firm commitment” that Canada will meet its Paris Agreement climate targets, motivating her to plan to support the budget.

“I’m going to vote ‘yes’ for the country, for the planet and for my hope in the future,” she also said.

In exchange for their votes, Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and his caucus laid out a series of non-negotiables for the Liberals ahead of the budget being tabled, which the document doesn’t meet.

“We have been clear that all of our MPs will vote this evening and will vote against the budget,” Bloc Quebecois spokesperson Joanie Riopel told CTV News in an email Monday.

The budget had already survived two confidence votes, the first on an amendment tabled by the Bloc, then a sub-amendment by the Conservatives. MPs voted Monday on the main motion of the budget.

What happens next

With this motion passed, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is now able to take the next step by tabling the budget implementation bill. This often-large piece of legislation allows the government to enact the legislative policies laid out in the budget that require new laws or amendments to existing laws.

On Parliament Hill Monday, Carney told CTV News’ Judy Trinh he’s been in many different cities across Canada in the last week, and he believes “what Canadians want is to invest in their country.”

“And that’s the opportunity for parliamentarians to vote today, and we’re going strong with that,” Carney also said.

With this budget – tabled in the House of Commons on Nov. 4 – the Liberals have said they’re prioritizing “generational investments” over slashing the deficit, which the government says would have come at the expense of social programs.

As a result, the federal deficit is projected to be $78.3 billion in 2025-26, a marked increase from the deficit forecast in last December’s fiscal update, which projected it to be $42.2 billion.

The 2025 federal budget includes $32.5 billion in net-new capital spending over five years, and projects a $1.7 billion surplus in the federal government’s operating budget by 2028-29. Overall, the 406-page document details $141 billion in new spending, offset by $51.2 billion in savings, amounting to a total net new spend of $89.7 billion.

With files from CTV News’ Noah Wachter, Stephanie Ha, Rachel Aiello and Mike Le Couteur