Liberals slightly ahead, but all major parties within five points: poll

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair appear in this composite image. (Sean Kilpatrick, Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The federal Liberals remain ahead of the governing Conservatives among decided voters, according to a new poll, but a horse race is shaping up two years from the next federal election, with the major parties all within five points.

A new CTV/Ipsos Reid poll puts Liberal support among decided voters at 33 per cent, down three points from last month, the Conservatives at 30 per cent, unchanged from last month, and the NDP up one percentage point to 28 per cent support.

Although Liberal support has dipped slightly, perhaps signalling an end to new leader Justin Trudeau’s honeymoon period that saw a surge in party support, the Conservatives also appear to have stopped the bleeding as the Senate expenses scandal cools off for the summer break.

“While the Senate scandal has clearly hurt the Tories, their descent has stopped,” read a statement from the polling firm. “Also, their approval numbers have popped (barely) above 40 again which, when combined with their incumbency, means they're still in the game for re-election.”

The survey, however, also includes support among voters who are most likely to show up on voting day. According to those responses:

Liberal supporters were most likely to say they would vote barring an emergency at 75 per cent, compared to 69 per cent of Conservative supporters and 66 per cent of NDP supporters.

Among respondents who are most committed to voting, the Liberal lead widens:

“Anyone can say they will vote for a party, but the real question for politicians (and pollsters for that matter) is to try and determine who is actually going to turn up and mark their ballot,” the statement said.

“On the heels of the British Columbia provincial election campaign where old turnout models proved volatile or inadequate to measure the true outcome, it’s critical that the pure group of ‘turn out and turn up’ voters be identified and monitored.”

Going back to decided voters, the poll shows the Conservatives gaining ground in their traditional stronghold, the West.

Also of note, the poll found that only seven per cent of Conservative supporters say they are open to switching their vote to another party, compared to 17 per cent of Liberal supporters and 21 per cent of NDP supporters.

“These are voters who really haven’t yet settled on a place to cast their final and decisive vote and tend to harden up during an official election campaign, usually in the back half after the leaders’ debates...,” the firm’s statement read. “In essence, these are the voters that the parties fight over to woo and keep because they are most likely to go out and vote but the real question is for whom at the end of the day.”

The poll was conducted by Ipsos Reid for CTV News between June 21 and 25, 2013. It included online interviews with 1,177 Canadians and is considered accurate within +/- 3.3 percentage points.