How a provincial leadership race could reshape Indigenous reconciliation and determine Canada’s economic future

A person walks up the stairs of the Law Courts building, which is home to B.C. Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal, is seen in Vancouver, on Jan. 12, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns

It is rare that a provincial opposition party leadership race has the potential to shift the national dialogue on a fundamental issue for the country, but that could be about to happen in British Columbia as the official opposition B.C. Conservative Party leadership race gets underway this month.

Let me unpack this a bit. For those not from B.C., politically, the province has long been a very polarized, typically closely contested, two-party province come election time. On one side are B.C. New Democrats, the other the B.C. Conservatives/Liberals over the past 30 years.

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Elections in B.C. are typically close affairs in terms of the popular vote, but because it is a binary choice (apart from southern Vancouver Island where the Greens have support) only slight margins in the popular vote can result in a massive mandate in the legislature’s seat count.

For example, in 2001, then-B.C. Liberal leader Gordon Campbell won 57.62% of the popular vote versus 21.56% for the NDP, but he swept 77 of the then 79 seats in the legislature.

Over the past eight elections in B.C., the NDP has never earned less than 39% of the popular vote and only once have they earned more than 44% of the vote. They have a high floor of support in every election, but a ceiling of support well under 50%. The B.C. Conservative/Liberals have earned between 41% and 45% of the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections and won five of those campaigns.

So, elections in B.C. are close, campaigns matter, party machinery and organization matters enormously, getting out your vote is fundamental, and leadership strength and momentum through the writ period is everything.

In the most recent B.C. election on Oct. 19, 2024, it was, again, a tight race. Premier David Eby earned 44% of the popular vote and 47 seats, and the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad earned 43% of the popular vote and 44 seats. The Greens won the remaining two seats in the legislature.

The NDP have governed B.C. since the summer of 2017 and, after approaching nine years in power, the public is clearly open to considering change. With John Rustad stepping down as B.C. Conservative leader, the stage is set for a large field of candidates to compete for the job, and the race has begun in earnest.

So why should Canadians outside the province care? Everything I’ve sketched out here is background material for the curious, but what is less understood is the shifting ground in B.C. on a key issue of national significance that I believe will be a featured issue of this leadership campaign: Aboriginal reconciliation and property rights and the way forward.

Cowichan ruling triggers uncertainty

On Aug. 7, 2025, the B.C. Supreme Court released a landmark decision on Cowichan Tribes v Canada (Attorney General). The Cowichan Tribes brought forward a claim for title to their traditional lands and the defendants opposite their claim included the federal Crown, the Province of B.C., the City of Richmond, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority and two Other B.C. First Nations.

The Court’s ruling in favour of the Cowichan Tribes claim triggered deep anxiety and uncertainty about the fundamental questions of land rights in B.C. due to the Court’s declaration that certain grants of fee simple (private property) title in the province are “defective and invalid.”

This could well be a watershed moment in both Aboriginal law landscape in B.C. and for the cascade effect it could have on land ownership, land transfer rights, economic development and basic certainty of rights more broadly.

If the decision is upheld on appeal, it could set a profound legal precedent for other cases by other Indigenous peoples who might seek access to fee simple land rights.

Added to this is growing confusion and anger about The Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) by the B.C. government that has prompted uncertainty around the province on existing laws and land use, Indigenous governance, the implementation of the act and its legal enforceability. These are fundamental questions about the governability of the province, and those questions will have national consequences.

The unresolved Aboriginal title issues are a fundamental roadblock to lasting reconciliation in B.C. They are also a roadblock of legal uncertainty in Canada’s third largest province and could impede any progress on the development of natural resources, the consideration of pipeline projects, the development of mining projects, or the attraction of any serious foreign investment into the province for economic growth, job creation and community development.

Put it another way, if we are to diversify our economy away from Donald Trump’s fortress America and exploit the opportunities of the Asia-Pacific, British Columbia needs to get certainty on these fundamental issues, and we need to get to that certainty quickly and responsibly.

Leadership race holds the key

Premier Eby has said he plans to amend the Declaration of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA), but no one knows what he has in mind, and if the past is prologue, many British Columbians should be dubious about what is about to be on offer from the premier.

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Interim Conservative leader Trevor Halford has said the province needs to repeal DRIPA – which is, of course, reasonable given all the problems to date – but that gets you back to a blank page and an invitation for perhaps endless litigation, which isn’t progress.

So that brings us to the B.C. Conservative leadership race, where this issue will feature prominently amongst a broad field of impressive candidates, one of whom is likely to be the next Premier of Canada’s Pacific coast and economic gateway to the Asian opportunities to counterbalance the receding American opportunity.

Part of Canada’s future depends on getting these fundamental questions about land ownership, rights and title and reconciliation right and finding the effective balance for our future. Pay attention to this race as it unfolds, and how the substance and articulation of these issues are presented. A big part of Canada’s unity and future prosperity hinges on getting this right.

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