After a raucous year of Parliament that ended with Prime Minister Stephen Harper meeting three times with Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to avert a summer election, many Canadians have been left wondering what's next.
The two agreed to set up a six-member panel that will undertake a review of Employment Insurance, with three members appointed by the prime minister and the remaining three appointed by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. It will report back to Canadians on Sept. 28.
But the prime minister also agreed to give the Liberals an opposition day at the end of September, which could force a fall election.
Some leading political journalists gave their predictions on CTV's Question Period Sunday about what will happen when MPs return to Ottawa.
Sun Media columnist Greg Weston said the focus will be the opposition day and the Conservatives' economic performance.
"All eyes are going to be on the first week in October, which will be the first landmine that was planted by the prime minister and Ignatieff this week, which will be a vote of confidence," he said.
"And this time I think we're going to see the focus be actually on (NDP Leader) Jack Layton. I think the Liberals will decide that they are going to use this motion of non-confidence and leave it up to the NDP to decide whether we get dragged into a fall election.
"Beyond that, I think the entire environment for the Harper government could change ... They're going to start reaping what they have sowed on the economy, and it's going to go one of two ways: either all of the stimulus spending and the economy are going to start to rebound, or that crop is going to come up with a lot of poison ivy in it.
"And that could be ... the auto bailouts. If (General Motors) is back for more money it's going to be an impossible situation, (along with) all these other companies looking for money and the government having to say no. At the moment, the 'Buy American' provision has got a lot of industries really worried about growing protectionism and that could really start to bite in the fall."
The Globe and Mail's Gloria Galloway also said the Conservatives' economic record will be under scrutiny.
"The Conservatives have a bit of an issue because despite the fact that they put out all of this stimulus, all this spending that could in fact help the economy ... we know we have a problem because there's a lag-time between employment figures and economic recovery," she said.
"So it could be, even though we see the economy turning around, unemployment could still be a very big rock in the Conservative basket."
Joel-Denis Bellavance, of La Presse, predicted there will be a fall election and said the Tories are in "pretty good shape" to fight it. However, he added it's hard to tell which party is going to make the biggest gains in Quebec.
"I'm not going to look that far into the future because this Tuesday all of the leaders will be in Quebec for Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day," he noted.
"(Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe) is going to stand firm against this government. He's not going to try to save the lives of the Tories."
Craig Oliver, Question Period host and CTV's chief parliamentary correspondent, said Harper and Ignatieff have to be "contrapuntal" this summer as they try and rally support.
"Harper will be spending the summer (being) engaging, charming, wearing his sweater, loving the world and he will certainly come back in better shape than he left," he joked.
"I think that Mr. Ignatieff has to come out of the summer with a snarl. He has to be ready to defeat Mr. Harper, but fairly sure that he won't because he needs time for Harper to have to govern with no money and say no to a lot of nice people. And that ain't going to be easy for Mr. Harper."
One key player in the fall will likely by Layton, who has the power to prop up the government. Will he use his party's votes to push for concessions from the government? It's worked in the past.
Oliver said Layton will most likely strike a deal with the Conservatives.
"Mr. Layton will make a deal -- he's so proud of his $4 billion deal with Paul Martin which got him so much credit with his own constituency," he said. "I think he'll do that again and save the Liberals from being forced into an election in the fall, which I don't think they'll be ready for by then."
Weston agreed, saying: "Mr. Harper is probably going to make a deal with Jack Layton. It's in the Conservatives' interest that the NDP be as strong as possible. A strong NDP is just splitting votes with the Liberals, especially in the urban ridings ... A weak NDP going into an election is not good news for the Conservatives, and it's good news for the Liberals. And that's why I think Jack and the prime minister are going to be doing more bargaining than Mr. Ignatieff."
But Galloway said any deals struck between Harper and Layton could be more damaging to the NDP.
"(Layton's) base does not want to see him playing footsy with Mr. Harper," she said. "Even if Mr. Harper gave the NDP a lot of what they want -- which is really totally counter to what you'd think Mr. Harper is going to do -- I don't think ... the folks that normally vote for NDP are going to be going ... 'We love to see you guys co-operate.'"
