CAQ leadership and Quebec premier's office is still up for grabs, pollsters say

CAQ leadership candidate Bernard Drainville, centre, announces endorsements by party members Quebec Minister of Transportation Jonatan Julien, left to right, Quebec Justice Minister Simon Jolin-Barrette and Quebec Health Minister Sonia Belanger in Montreal on Monday, April 6, 2026. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi)

With less than a week left in the race to replace outgoing Quebec Premier François Legault, pollsters say neither candidate can be ruled out.

Christine Fréchette, a former economy minister, and Bernard Drainville, a former environment minister, threw their names in the hat to lead the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) after Legault announced he was stepping down in January.

With some polls showing support for the CAQ in the single digits, the party — which has enjoyed two majority governments since 2018 — is hoping to turn the tide before the general election this fall.

One pollster believes the leadership race could also influence whether the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) maintains its lead in the polls over the Quebec Liberals (PLQ), opening the door to another referendum on Quebec independence.

“You have a really important battle between the CAQ and the Liberals for all the federalist vote,” said Jean-Marc Léger, president and CEO of polling company Léger. “What will happen in the CAQ will have a lot of impact on the provincial election and, of course, whether the referendum follows that election.”

Léger polls from January showed that Fréchette had some momentum that could allow the CAQ to gain traction among voters.

But more recent surveys from Leger suggest she and her party lost that momentum and would continue to trail far behind the PQ, Quebec Liberals and Conservatives (PCQ), regardless of whether she wins the CAQ race.

“Anyone who follows Canadian politics even a little bit knows that the CAQ is in trouble. The choice facing CAQ members is either to play it safe and hopefully salvage a few seats so it can survive the election, or to take a risk and try to win over votes from the Conservative Party,” says Philippe J. Fournier, who runs the Quebec poll analysis platform QC125.

Léger adds that, in most cases, parties that replace the founder as leader wind up losing the following election.

Within the party, Fréchette has garnered the support of 16 cabinet ministers — including the current finance, immigration, public security, culture and environment ministers.

Drainville says he’s the underdog in the race, but said his campaign had reached a “turning point” with some new endorsements on Monday from Justice Minister Simon Jolin-Barrette, Health Minister Sonia Bélanger and Transport Minister Jonatan Julien.

Drainville already had the support of Youth Minister Samuel Poulin and a handful of CAQ representatives.

“I think that we were ahead before today, and I think this is going to accelerate the movement,” he told journalists at a news conference.

Drainville — a former PQ member — has leaned on conservative ideas and positioned himself as the candidate best suited to defend Quebec’s identity and to adopt a stricter immigration policy.

Fréchette focused her campaign on economic issues.

She said she was open to allowing more permanent residents in Quebec and reopening the debate around shale gas and hydraulic fracturing.

The CAQ has roughly 20,500 members who can cast their vote to choose Legault’s successor, before the results are unveiled on April 12.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 6, 2026.