Support needs for Quebec seniors will skyrocket; the crisis is already upon us

A man rests in his room at Idola Saint-Jean long-term care home in Laval, Que., Friday, February 25, 2022. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

Current resources are insufficient to meet the needs of seniors in Quebec.

By 2035, 111,000 more seniors may not have access to home care services or a living environment adapted to their needs.

The Quebec Alliance for Seniors (AQMVA) is sounding the alarm and calling on decision-makers to act before hitting a wall.

There is a “clear imbalance” between rising demand and public sector supply, says the AQMVA, which represents 86 per cent of senior housing in Quebec, including home care, long-term care facilities, private seniors’ residences (RPA) and intermediate resources.

The AQMVA commissioned Aviseo Conseil to produce a ten-year forecast of the demand for support and assistance for seniors. The report published on Tuesday paints an alarming picture.

The number of seniors requiring support for independence will increase from 289,000 in 2025 to 400,000 in 2035, a 38 per cent increase. Support for independence includes, for example, assistance with getting out of bed, partial or complete toileting, supervision of medication intake, etc. This support can be provided at home, but also in other settings, such as residences.

According to forecasts, in ten years’ time, 70 per cent of demand will be for home support, and demand in CHSLDs will jump by more than 50 per cent. By 2040, 40,000 new places in CHSLDs will be needed to meet demand.

Some regions more affected than others

More than half of the increase in home support would be concentrated in Montérégie, Montreal, the Laurentians and the Capitale-Nationale region. These four regions alone account for nearly 50 per cent of the total growth when their demographic weight and ageing population are combined.

Carl Veilleux, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Quebec Intermediate Housing Resources Association (ARIHQ), wonders what the government’s vision is for the coming years in Quebec.

He puts forward statistics that speak for themselves.

Since 2018, 700 RPAs have closed their doors, “mainly for financial reasons,” according to Veilleux.

In addition, since 2020, 72 per cent of calls for tenders for intermediate resources have not been answered “because the financing conditions are not adequate for market realities.”

“We are all getting older, but some regions will be under greater pressure than others... In terms of CHSLDs, intermediate resources, and private residences for seniors (RPA), too, the closures must stop. We must continue to develop and maintain services; that is essential,” said Veilleux.

Already, 25,000 seniors do not have the care and services they need. More specifically, 3,500 seniors are waiting for a place in a CHSLD and 17,800 seniors are waiting for their first home care service, according to data from the Ministry of Health’s dashboard. Added to this are figures from the ARIHQ, according to which 5,500 people are waiting for a place in intermediate resources.

These people are wandering around the system. Either they find themselves hospitalized while waiting for a place in a CHSLD that may never materialize for them, or their caregivers are exhausted from looking after them.

“There are cases that are housed in intermediate resources that should normally be located in CHSLDs, but due to lack of space, they are kept in intermediate resources,” explains Veilleux. “The teams on site are not always equipped to properly supervise these more demanding clients. So, it puts pressure on the team... It also has an effect on all the other residents who live with this person, because perhaps the person becomes disorganized, has serious behavioural problems, so they are no longer in their place and they disrupt the living environment.”

These types of cases also bog down first responders who have to intervene in care settings, “when they shouldn’t have to,” said Veilleux.

‘The alarm is ringing louder than ever’

Currently, only 127 new places in seniors’ homes will be available in the coming years, according to the ministry’s dashboard. This is a “marginal increase compared to the expected increase in needs,” says the AQMVA.

The report indicates that the needs and costs of supporting the independence of seniors will quadruple, from $6.2 billion in 2020 to $25.6 billion in 2050.

“This major financial pressure on the Quebec government requires urgent reform that prioritises less costly home care,” the report states.

“We are reaffirming something we already knew,” said Veilleux. “I think the alarm bell is ringing louder than ever for us. We are definitely facing a crisis in support services for seniors, with 25,000 people currently without services. I think we are already in the midst of it, and the crisis will only worsen in the coming years.

“Even in the most optimistic scenario, we will not be able to meet the needs of our seniors, so it is absolutely imperative that we mobilize quickly to work differently, all together, in order to get through this crisis,” he said.

Veilleux is asking Seniors and Caregivers Minister Sonia Bélanger to sit down with the AQMVA to implement solutions.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Nov. 25, 2025.

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