Support for Quebec Liberal Party surging in the wake of Pablo Rodriguez’s election: poll

A new Léger poll shows nearly half of young Quebecers support sovereignty, raising questions about whether a generational shift is underway or just a temporary.

The effect of Pablo Rodriguez’s election as the new leader of the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) on voting intentions has been confirmed, with a second poll showing the party surging in popularity.

In the most recent Léger poll, conducted on behalf of Quebecor Media, 28 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the QLP if an election were held today.

The Liberals have thus gained seven percentage points since Léger’s previous poll, conducted in May, before Rodriguez became party leader.

In the poll released on Thursday, the PLQ is now only two points behind the Parti Québécois (PQ), which remains in the lead in voting intentions with 30 per cent. However, the sovereigntist party has lost three points since the May poll.

A Pallas Data poll released last week, just after Rodriguez’s victory in the PLQ leadership race, also showed an increase in support for the PLQ.

That poll put the Liberals at 26 per cent and the PQ at 31 per cent. In the previous Pallas Data poll, published in March, the Liberals had garnered 22 per cent of support.

Increased dissatisfaction with the CAQ

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to plummet. François Legault’s party lost another three points and now stands at 17 per cent of voting intentions, according to Léger.

The CAQ remains ahead of the Conservative Party (14 per cent, up 1 point from the May poll) and Québec solidaire (9 per cent, down 1 point from the May poll).

The CAQ’s decline in support coincides with an increase in Quebecers’ dissatisfaction with the Legault government.

In the Léger-Québecor poll, 65 per cent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the CAQ government’s performance, four points higher than in the previous poll.

In contrast, 28 per cent of participants said they were satisfied with the government’s performance, down four points from the previous poll.

Last week, when another poll showed the CAQ down in voting intentions, Legault said that such results make him want to “fight” for Quebecers.

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, 23 per cent of respondents chose PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 19 per cent chose Rodriguez, and 17 per cent chose Legault.

Half of respondents said that Legault should step down as CAQ leader.

Sovereignty on the rise among young people

When it comes to Quebec sovereignty, 33 per cent of respondents said they were in favour, 59 per cent said they were against, and 8 per cent said they did not know or preferred not to answer.

While support for independence remained stable from one month to the next, one figure stands out: support for sovereignty stands at 48 per cent among the 18-34 age group.

Support for sovereignty is therefore higher in this age group than among aged 35-54 (28 per cent) and those aged 55 and over (35 per cent), according to Léger’s data.

The Léger-Québecor poll was conducted online among 1,056 respondents in Quebec from 20 to 22 June.

There is no margin of error, as online surveys are not considered a random sample of the population, but a probabilistic sample of this size would have a margin of error of no more than ± 3% (19 times out of 20).

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on June 26, 2025.

By Mathieu Paquette, The Canadian Press