Quebec provincial election now a three-way race with Fréchette as CAQ leader: poll

The CAQ is making a comeback in polling thanks to the election of its new leader and a change in tone, according to political analyst Raphael Melançon.

The Quebec provincial election is less than five months away and it is beginning to shape up to be a three-way race between the Parti Québécois (PQ), the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), and the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), according to a new poll.

The change is attributable to a nearly 10-point jump in voting intentions for the CAQ under the party’s new leader, Christine Fréchette.

The Léger/Québecor poll, released on Wednesday, shows that the PQ is still leading the way. If an election were to be held today, the party, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, would get 30 per cent of the vote.

Meanwhile, the PLQ is not that far behind, with 28 per cent support in voting intentions, according to the poll.

In third place is the CAQ, which saw a jump of nine points since early April from 13 to 22 per cent support.

“This rebound is accompanied by an improvement in perceptions of the government led by Christine Fréchette, with 47% of Quebecers saying they are satisfied with her government’s performance,” the Léger/Québecor explained.

“In addition, 39% of respondents believe she has done an excellent or good job so far, while 30% say she is a better premier than François Legault.”

The Quebec Conservative Party (PCQ) comes in fourth place with 11 per cent support and in fifth place is Québec Solidaire (QS) at 8 per cent.

Still, it’s quite early in the game and there is a considerable amount of uncertainty among voters. When asked, 48 per cent of respondents said their vote is a done deal, while 49 per cent said their choice is not yet certain and they could vote for another party.

The ‘Fréchette Effect’

The CAQ is the party most respondents said they would vote for (18 per cent) as their second choice. In another sign the party is seeing a boost in support, the poll shows the new leader, Fréchette, had the most gains among all of the leaders when respondents were asked who would make the best leader.

Fréchette inched ahead four points to 20 per cent support but it still wasn’t enough to take the lead from St-Pierre Plamondon with 22 per cent support (down one point).

Millard came in third at 15 per cent, Duhaime came in fourth at 8 per cent, and the QS’ Ruba Ghazal came in fifth with 5 per cent.

If the “I don’t know/refuse” were a party leader, they would take the lead at 29 per cent.

The leadership change for the CAQ in April has helped the party regain its competitive edge, the poll noted.

“This rebound is accompanied by an improvement in perceptions of the government led by Christine Fréchette, with 47% of Quebecers saying they are satisfied with her government’s performance. In addition, 39% of respondents believe she has done an excellent or good job so far, while 30% say she is a better premier than François Legault,” the poll said.

Political analyst Raphael Melançon said electing a new leader has consistently helped the CAQ gain momentum and the party is finally seeing some results.

“[Fréchette] is much more moderate on certain issues if you think about immigration, for instance. It’s less divisive than it used to be under François Legault,” Melançon said.

“They are gaining support even among non-francophone voters and that’s mainly at the expense of Eric Duhaime’s Conservative party.”

Voting intentions based on language show the PQ still has strong support among francophones, capturing an 11-point lead over the CAQ with 37 per cent support. The Quebec Liberals still have strong support among non-francophones, with 59 per cent support.

Health dominates key issues, most Quebecers don’t want a referendum: poll

Respondents were also asked what were the most important issues to them in the upcoming election. At the top was health and social services at 54 per cent, followed by the cost of living and buying power at 51 per cent.

The other key issues on the minds of voters, according to the poll, are affordable housing (25 per cent), the economy and jobs (22 per cent), education (20 per cent), and taxes and management of public finances (16 per cent).

Meanwhile, sovereignty is still unpopular among the electorate. When respondents were asked about the issue, more than two-thirds (68 per cent) said they would vote No in a referendum on Quebec’s independence.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents said they would vote Yes.

The Quebec provincial election, set for Oct. 5, is now a “wide open” race, the Léger/Québecor poll said.

“One thing is clear: Quebec’s political landscape is entering a new phase, and the 2026 race is shaping up to be much tighter than it looked only a few weeks ago.”