Quebec dials back emissions projections due to global uncertainty

Traffic on a street in Montreal, Thursday, November 14, 2024. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

The Quebec government is scaling back its projections for greenhouse gas emissions reductions due to the Trump administration.

A report published Thursday by the province’s Environment Department says the current U.S. government has created a “challenging environment for advancing climate action.”

It points in particular to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs, which it says have slowed down business investment, including in decarbonization.

It also says the administration’s attempts to challenge carbon pricing mechanisms in various U.S. states were “exerting downward pressure on market prices.”

“The economic and political uncertainty caused by the new U.S. federal administration ... does not allow the deployment of measures as quickly and effectively as planned,” the report says.

The government now estimates that measures being adopted in Quebec to reduce emissions will account for 65 per cent of the cuts needed to reach the province’s 2030 emissions target, down from a projected 67 per cent last year.

Quebec is aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37.5 per cent compared to 1990 levels by 2030. That’s a drop of about 30 million tonnes from projected emissions in the absence of climate policies.

The new report is an annual update on the province’s progress toward meeting that goal. It estimates that planned measures will cut emissions by 19.4 million tonnes in 2030, a slight drop from last year’s projections.

The document also says the Canadian government’s decision to scrap the federal consumer carbon price in April could harm the competitiveness of Quebec businesses.

“Uncertainty remains regarding the actions that will be taken by the federal government to combat climate change,” it reads.

Quebec has so far maintained its own cap-and-trade carbon pricing system, which is linked with California’s system.

The report says Quebec’s carbon price is a major driver of emissions reductions in the province, and revenue from the carbon market is an important source of funding for other climate measures in the government’s plan.

The report highlights $10.1 billion in planned government spending over the next five years, much of it to reduce emissions from transportation, industry and housing.

It says new initiatives under development could lead to further emissions cuts and could get the province to between 67 and 72 per cent of its 2030 target.

Despite dialling back its projections, the government says greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 0.9 million tonnes in Quebec between 2022 and 2023, and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The report also says there was a record number of electric-vehicle sales in Quebec in 2024, with more than 125,000 new registrations.

Zero-emission vehicle sales made up nearly 31 per cent of light-duty vehicle sales that year, it says, and there were 375,000 electric vehicles on the road in Quebec last December.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 19, 2025.

Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press