Poll: Most Quebecers oppose independence

Sébastien Dallaire of Léger discusses the challenges facing the Parti Québécois after a new poll shows Quebecers remain uninterested in a referendum.

Nearly 30 years after the 1995 referendum, a new Léger poll suggests Quebecers remain largely uninterested in sovereignty.

Commissioned by the Journal de Montréal and released Oct. 20, the poll found that 65 per cent of respondents would vote “no” and 35 per cent “yes” if a referendum were held today.

Among Parti Québécois (PQ) supporters — the party that continues to lead in voting intentions with 36 per cent — 67 per cent said they would vote for Quebec sovereignty.

In an interview, Sébastien Dallaire with Léger called the lack of support for independence a “big obstacle” for PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

“We know historically, for those who remember 1995 or before, that often it’s the referendum itself that triggers the biggest reaction,” Dallaire said.

“Voters are not necessarily keen on going into those emotional debates about the future of the country. “What are we going to do if Quebec separates? What will be the impact? So it’s the notion of the referendum itself that tends to trigger more deeply emotional responses. And we’re seeing this in the survey, the idea of a referendum is not very popular.”

Support for sovereignty stood at 44 per cent among Québec solidaire (QS) supporters, 33 per cent among Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) supporters, 26 per cent among Quebec Conservative Party supporters and 10 per cent among Quebec Liberal Party supporters.

If provincial elections were held today, the Liberals, led by Pablo Rodriguez, would receive 25 per cent of the vote. The CAQ would be in third place with 16 per cent, Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party would get 15 per cent, and QS would take six per cent.

In Montreal, the Liberals are leading with 36 per cent of the vote, rising to 56 per cent among non-francophone voters.

The survey also asked respondents about national identity, reflecting on the 1995 referendum. Forty per cent said they felt more like Quebecers, while 32 per cent said they identified more as Canadians.

When asked about the possibility of Quebec becoming a country, 53 per cent said they would feel concerned, compared with 29 per cent who said they would be pleased.

Most respondents (55 per cent) said they do not believe Quebec has the financial and economic means to become a sovereign nation, nor that independence would be a desirable outcome for the province.

Although St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a third referendum during his first mandate if his party wins the next election in 2026, only 28 per cent of respondents said they would want a referendum by 2030.

“So there is going to be a lot of work in front of the Parti Québécois and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to convince more Quebecers that this is a good idea and that this is what we should embark on at this stage,” Dallaire added.