Only 26% of Quebecers would vote to separate from Canada: survey

Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon speaks at a press conference during the party's convention in Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, on Friday, Jan. 23, 2026. (Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press)

A new Angus Reid survey found that only one quarter – about 26 per cent – of the Quebec electorate would vote to separate if a referendum were held today.

That percentage is split further between decided voters, at 15 per cent, and leaning voters at 11 per cent.

Voters opposed to separation make up 63 per cent of respondents, with half in the province saying they would definitely vote to stay, according to the survey.

Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a third referendum during his first mandate if his party wins the next election.

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In fact, after Premier François Legault’s resignation last month, St-Pierre Plamondon stressed that the political debate in the province should refocus on sovereignty.

“The ‘leave camp’ falls mostly – though not entirely – under the banner of those who would also support the Parti Québécois were the provincial election today,” the survey noted.

Two-thirds, or 64 per cent, of Parti Québécois voters said they would also vote “leave” in a referendum.

But the poll also shows that there are supporters of separation in the other parties, including 15 per cent in the Coalition Avenir Québec, 16 per cent in Québec Solidaire and 18 per cent of the Quebec Conservatives.

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The survey was conducted online from Feb. 2 to 6 among a randomized sample of 939 Quebec residents.

According to the poll, the PQ is clearly at the forefront of the push for the next referendum, but it also underscored that sovereignty is not the only deciding factor among Quebec voters in the next provincial election.

“Identity, language and culture are some of the more compelling arguments for those who would vote for the province to separate from Canada.”

Another key finding showed three-quarters of Quebecers believe the U.S. would use political means (76 per cent) or economic means (79 per cent) to compel an independent Quebec to join the States, while 51 per cent said they also worry the U.S. could use military means.

However, those who would vote to “leave” if a referendum were held today are less convinced the U.S. would compel an independent Quebec to join them than those who would vote to stay.

A large majority (91 per cent) of those who would vote to “leave” said that “Canada’s institutions will always favour English Canada over Quebec.”

But those in the leave camp are concerned about economic instability, with more than half (54 per cent) saying the potential of increased economic instability from an independent Quebec is a reason for Quebec to stay in Canada.