A majority of Quebecers oppose holding a referendum on sovereignty if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins the 2026 provincial election, a new poll suggests. The survey, commissioned by Qc125 and conducted by Pallas Data on Sept. 6, found that 49 per cent of respondents held a “very unfavourable” view of a referendum on sovereignty, while just 19 per cent said they viewed the idea “very favourably.” The new poll comes in just over a month after a survey by research firm CROP showed renewed enthusiasm for separatism among young people. PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised a third referendum on independence during his first mandate if his party comes to power next year. Political analyst Philippe J. Fournier, creator of 338Canada and Qc125, said he was surprised by how many respondents view the idea so negatively. “That’s a significant ratio. When you’re asked questions on a scale like this, it gives you the floor of either side of the issue. If the floor of those against sovereignty is 49 per cent, there’s no room for error for the yes camp,” Fournier said. The poll also shows the PQ with 38 per cent of voting intentions — its highest level since the years of former premier Pauline Marois more than a decade ago — and an 11-point lead over the Quebec Liberal Party. “The PQ has gone up significantly since the election and now it is at its peak, yet support for sovereignty has been flat throughout that time,” explained Fournier. “We see that a majority of Quebec voters are not interested in having a referendum early in a PQ mandate. So, it will be a major challenge for Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon,” he added. While the PQ continues to climb in the polls, support for sovereignty remains stable at around 35 per cent. Fournier noted that the disconnect between the PQ’s strong support and the lack of appetite for a referendum indicates voters are likely looking for change. “It says to me that the CAQ coalition is breaking down into pieces, and many voters in Quebec would like to really change governments. And do not want François Legault and the CAQ next year, but they’re not very enthused about a referendum for the Parti Québécois,” Fournier said. He added that even if the PQ is in the best position to replace the current government, it needs to manage expectations and the timing of a referendum to avoid turning off voters.
