Montreal Port expansion would be ‘unprofitable,’ says study

SNAP is calling attention to serious socio-economic problems with the proposed 'Nation building' Montreal port expansion project.

A study commissioned by the Society for Nature and Parks (SNAP Québec) argues that the Port of Montreal expansion project in Contrecœur risks being a “financial burden on taxpayers” and is based on unrealistic projections.

SNAP Québec, an organization dedicated to the protection of nature and endangered species, plans to challenge the Port of Montreal expansion project in Federal Court, arguing that it would jeopardize the survival of the copper redhorse, an endangered species.

On Tuesday, the same organization that is threatening to sue the federal government for authorizing the project published a study arguing that the infrastructure risks being “underutilized, unprofitable and a financial burden on Canadian taxpayers.”

‘Unrealistic’ projections

The Port of Montreal expansion project in Contrecœur, which Prime Minister Mark Carney hopes to see approved and implemented quickly under the Building Canada Act, “is based on unrealistic projections of increased container traffic on the St. Lawrence River,” according to Éric Pineault, professor in the Department of Sociology at the UQAM Institute of Environmental Sciences.

As an example of unrealistic projections, the two co-authors of the study published Tuesday morning, Pineault and researcher Henri Chevalier, a doctoral student at the University of Waterloo, highlighted data published by the Montreal Port Authority (MPA) in 2017 in a document justifying the expansion of the Contrecœur port terminal.

At that time, the MPA indicated that “container traffic at the Port of Montreal is expected to nearly double between 2016 and 2030, from 1.45 million to 2.47 million TEUs” (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) and that the port therefore needed to be expanded.

• READ MORE: Residents have concerns about the fast-track POrt of Montreal expansion in Contrecoeur, Que.

“Contrary to what the port projected in its 2017 study, there has been no continuous growth in traffic over the past 11 years,” and the volume of container traffic, estimated “at approximately 1.5 million TEUs in 2025,” has not reached “the levels predicted in the 2017 study that justified the expansion of the Port,” researchers Pineault and Chevalier point out.

There is indeed a “stagnation in the container market,” said Jacques Roy, former professor of operations and logistics management at HEC Montréal, who reviewed the study.

However, the retired professor adds, “we must be realistic,” because “the federal government is banking heavily on trade diversification” and finding partners other than the United States for trade “will only be possible through maritime transport.”

Therefore, in his opinion, the port expansion “comes at the right time for the government’s objectives.”

Roy added that “perhaps by opening up interprovincial barriers, Montreal could serve as a point of entry for goods from Europe to be redistributed throughout the rest of the country.”

This type of opportunity “has not been available in recent years,” but it could arise in the future.

The St. Lawrence River is not deep enough

The study commissioned by SNAP Québec points out that maritime transport is evolving toward a fleet of ships that are too big to navigate to Contrecœur.

“Maritime trade trends are working against Montreal: the global fleet is now focused on mega-ships that require deep-water ports,” while “the shallow draft of the St. Lawrence prevents Montreal and Contrecœur from accommodating mega-ships.”

Contrecœur would therefore be “uncompetitive compared to hubs such as Halifax or New York” and would risk remaining “a secondary port, unattractive to major maritime transport alliances.”

Roy said this argument “deserves some nuance.”

“There are large international hubs, but Montreal has never really aspired to compete with these major ports.”

Montreal has a different role, and its port is more of a “collection and destination port” than a port where “containers are transferred” from mega-ships to smaller vessels.

Furthermore, the analysis by researchers Pineault and Chevalier considers that “climate constraints” weigh on “the future profitability of the terminal”, as climate change “is altering the hydrological regime of the St. Lawrence River, causing chronic low water levels that compromise the navigability and reliability of the maritime corridor.”

Private sector contribution unknown

The APM plans to increase the port’s annual capacity by 60 per cent through the expansion of its terminal in Contrecœur and wishes to use this site to increase its container handling capacity.

It estimates that up to 1.5 million containers per year could pass through this future terminal, which is partly financed by public funds.

The analysis published on Tuesday indicates that the project is based on “predominantly public funding: $300 million from Ottawa, $130 million from Quebec and $480 million borrowed by the Port of Montreal.”

Its total cost, it says, “has jumped by about 150 per cent, from $950 million to $2.3 billion.”

The Contrecœur project “presents significant risks of unprofitability despite public financing guarantees, in line with a trend observed in several recent industrial and infrastructure projects,” such as Northvolt and Lion Electric, the report’s authors point out.

“If there were no developer, I would say it’s a fairly risky project,” said Roy, “but since there is a private developer willing to put up the money, that somewhat counterbalances the argument that it’s not profitable.”

The Emirati group DP World will operate the future Contrecœur terminal, but it is not known how much money the group is prepared to invest in the project.

“We don’t know how much private investment there will be, and I would say that until that is settled, it may be a little premature to move forward” with the port expansion, said Roy.

Impact on biodiversity

The port expansion work involves dredging the bottom of the St. Lawrence River in the distribution area of the copper redhorse, an endangered species.

The copper redhorse is found nowhere else on the planet except in a limited section of the St. Lawrence River and a few tributaries, such as the Richelieu River, where it reproduces.

Last Thursday, the APM announced that it had obtained a permit from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for “the expansion of port facilities in Contrecœur and the continued construction of the new container terminal” in the habitat of the copper redhorse.

SNAP Quebec plans to challenge the validity of the permit issued.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Jan. 13, 2026.