Ensemble Montreal holds 9-point lead in Montreal election, but most voters undecided: poll

A new poll suggests Ensemble Montréal has a nearly 10-point lead less than a month before the municipal election, though 42 per cent of voters remain undecided.

Less than a month before the municipal election campaign in Quebec, the opposition party at Montreal City Hall is taking nearly a 10-point lead ahead of the current administration, a new poll suggests.

But despite the early lead, the poll shows that the majority of voters still haven’t yet decided who they intend to vote for on election day, which means there are millions of votes up for grabs.

The survey, conducted by Leger for CTV News Montreal and released Monday, showed that if an election were held today, 21 per cent of the votes would go for Soraya Martinez Ferrada, the leader of Ensemble Montréal.

In second place is Projet Montréal, led by Luc Rabouin, who had 12 per cent of the vote, according to the Leger/CTV News poll, ahead of Transition Montréal leader Craig Sauvé (8 per cent), Action Montréal leader Gilbert Thibodeau (7 per cent), and Futur Montréal’s Jean-François Kacou (2 per cent).

• MORE COVERAGE: Montreal municipal election 2025

Overshadowing, though, are the undecided voters. The poll reported that 42 per cent of respondents said they don’t know who they would vote for in the Nov. 2 election or refused to answer.

The lack of “star candidates” in the Montreal race might explain why there are so many people who are undecided, said Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president, in an interview.

“We have candidates who do have a strong background in municipal and/or federal politics as well, but they’re not leaders of parties in the past. We also don’t have an incumbent mayor in the race, so voters have a bit more work to do to get to know the candidates,” he explained.

The “bombardment” of global and national political news can also overwhelm voters, making it difficult for municipal politics to really stand out, he added.

While Martinez Ferrada is ahead in the poll, “we see that none of the candidates have really managed to really grab headlines and really carve their territory for the campaign,” Dallaire said.

Third-party candidates gaining ground: Dallaire

With nearly four weeks to go before voters head to the polls, there is still a lot of ground to be covered, and the candidates really need to make a stronger impression with voters who are still making up their minds.

Third-party candidates like Sauvé and Thibodeau are slowly gaining ground. Sauvé left Projet Montréal in 2021, potentially stealing votes in the 2025 election.

According to the poll, 53 per cent of women said they were undecided, while 30 per cent of men said they’re not sure who to vote for.

Not counting the undecided vote, Martinez Ferrada led by a fair margin when asked which political party would handle issues like improving the quality of life for Montreal citizens, fighting crime, and managing public finances.

Montrealers support supervised drug consumption sites, oppose bike lanes

To Dallaire’s surprise, there is support for opening supervised consumption sites. According to the poll, 46 per cent of respondents said it was a good idea for the City of Montreal, while 32 per cent said it was a bad idea and 22 per cent didn’t know or refused.

But when it comes to continuing to invest in and expand the bike path network — an issue that has divided Montreal residents — a slim majority (56 per cent) said it was a bad idea. Almost one-third (31 per cent) said it was a good idea and 13 per cent said they didn’t know/refused.

“It shows that maybe during the previous administration, the issue of bike lanes really stuck with some voters,” Dallaire said.

Montreal housing unaffordable, survey respondents say

Perhaps what could be a key issue in the election is housing.

The poll participants were asked about the perceived affordability of property or rent in Montreal compared to other cities. The Leger/CTV News poll reported that 72 per cent of respondents believe the cost of owning a home and renting is not very affordable or not affordable at all.

Comparatively, just 20 per cent said housing was affordable in the city, and 3 per cent said it was “very affordable.”

The cost of living and economic uncertainty traditionally are very high on the list of key issues in elections at the national and provincial levels, and municipal elections are no different, Dallaire said.

“We know from previous polls that this also ranked as a top issue, and we’re seeing in the results here that when we focus more specifically on housing, it is a big concern for Montrealers who feel that Montreal has become unaffordable,” he said, “and that will definitely play a big role in who they pick as the next mayor.”

When it comes to language issues, most (54 per cent) people said protecting the rights of the English-speaking community should not be a priority issue in the election campaign (38 per cent said yes).

Comparatively, the vast majority of respondents (63 per cent) said protecting the French language should not be a priority issue, while 30 per cent said the opposite.

Methodology

Leger conducted an online survey of 500 residents in the City of Montreal between Sept. 26 and 30, 2025. The firm said the survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and that results were weighted according to age, gender, region, education, and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.