3 for 3: PQ the ‘number one political force in Quebec,’ says political analyst

Analyst Raphaël Melançon says the Arthabaska byelection result is 'a very important victory' for the PQ, which he says is the leading political force in Quebec.

With Alex Boissonneault’s win in Arthabaska and a third byelection win in a row, the Parti Québécois (PQ) confirmed “its position as the number one political force in Quebec,” according to political analyst Raphaël Melançon.

“The timing of it is perfect for the PQ because it’s going to bring them even more momentum than they have at the moment in the polls,” Melançon added. “It could reinforce their support and crystallize their support in the minds of a lot of Quebec voters at the moment.”

Three for four for the PQ

Here is a breakdown of the four byelections since the 2022 provincial election that saw the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) cruise to a massive majority government.

Arthabaska, Centre-du-Quebec (Aug. 11, 2025)

Terrebonne, Lanaudière (March 17, 2025)

Jean-Talon, Capitale-Nationale (Oct. 2, 2023)

Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne, Montreal (March 13, 2023)

PQ surging, CAQ floundering

With distant second-place finishes in Jean-Talon and Terrebonne and a crushing fourth-place finish in Arthabaska, the ruling CAQ government of François Legault now has three conclusive defeats in a row.

“At seven per cent, two points behind the Liberals, which don’t stand any chance to win in this riding, really, it’s a slap in the face for Francois Legault,” said Melançon.

In all four byelections since the 2022 general, the PQ has outperformed the CAQ.

In Arthabaska, Melançon pointed out that former CAQ party whip Éric Lefebvre won in 2022 with over 50 per cent of the vote (51.75), won in 2018 with over 60 (61.84) and won in 2016 by over 40 (43.96) in a byelection after the death of late former MNA Sylvie Roy.

Roy won in 2012 (42.42 per cent) and 2014 (45.49).

“It’s a harsh judgment from voters in Arthabaska regarding the situation of the CAQ government at the moment,” said Melançon. “It’s sending a strong message also to the governing party regarding maybe the leadership of François Legault.”

No seat for Duhaime

Legault’s future is not the only one that is less than solid, as Conservative Party of Quebec leader Éric Duhaime failed to win a seat in a riding that was predicted to be much closer than it actually was.

With a 10-point loss in Arthabaska, Duhaime will not find himself among the MNAs in the Quebec legislature after he lost in the Chauveau riding in the 2022 general election by 15 points to CAQ MNA Sylvain Lévesque.

“Internally, certainly, questions will be raised within his own ranks, within his own party, as to if he is the leader to continue to lead that party into the next general election because if you can’t win an Arthabaska tonight, especially with the polls that were suggesting that the race was so tight between the PQ and the Conservatives, and if you lose in the end by 10 points to the PQ, certainly it’s a major disappointment for the provincial Conservatives tonight, and it certainly is going to raise questions internally regarding the leadership of Éric Duhaime overall,” said Melançon.