After just four years as Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis has successfully moved the perennial battleground state solidly into the Republican party column. Today, Republican voters vastly outnumber Democrats with a supermajority in the Florida state legislature. Additionally, as evidenced by the 2022 gubernatorial election, they are making tremendous gains in long-held Democratic strongholds across the state.
The former congressman has successfully cemented the state as a bulwark against the left. Yet, all that DeSantis has built in Florida and the Republican party gains that came with it, could be in peril as his presidential aspirations appear to falter.
The latest NBC News poll shows former U.S. president Donald Trump clearly ensconced atop the field as candidates seek the Republican nomination to run for president in 2024. DeSantis, meanwhile, is losing ground at 22 per cent, down nearly 10 points since April, before he entered the race.
Former Maryland governor Larry Hogan said in an interview with CBS that DeSantis’ campaign is “one of the worst I’ve seen so far, and he’s dropped like a rock. I think it’s getting close to being over.” In a series of Truth Social posts, Trump echoed a similar sentiment. The former reality television star wrote, “Ron DeSanctimonious is desperately trying to get out of the Presidential race, while at the same time saving face for 2028, where he has been greatly damaged.”
Reports from The New York Times and Rolling Stone also suggest media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who has favoured DeSantis leading up to the 2024 presidential primary, may be losing faith in the governor’s ability to gain control over the GOP. According to Rolling Stone, Murdoch “has privately winced at DeSantis’ nonstop cultural-grievance strategy.”
It was just a few short months ago that the governor seemed to be feted by the GOP and donor class as Trump’s heir apparent. A landslide re-election victory in 2022 along with a US$100-million war chest signalled DeSantis was ready for prime time and the prized student may have been positioned to overtake the teacher.
However, some within the DeSantis camp have begun to question whether DeSantis is on a viable path towards overtaking Trump, according to Reuters. Former Trump adviser Steve Cortes also acknowledged the Florida governor is “way behind” in national polling.
While DeSantis' growing national travails continue unabated, Florida Democrats appear to be plotting a way back to relevance. One glimmer of hope for Florida Democrats is the recent mayoral race in Jacksonville, Fla., the state’s largest city. Though vastly outspent, Democrats were able to beat the DeSantis-endorsed Republican candidate, Daniel Davis, to win the race in what has traditionally been a GOP stronghold. The loss could be seen as a harbinger of what awaits the governor back home should a premature exit from the GOP presidential primary race become a reality.
If the Florida governor thinks the familiar confines of home will offer solace from the high-stake battles of the campaign trail, he could be mistaken. State and national Democrats are seeking to build momentum from this recent mayoral victory in Florida. U.S. President Joe Biden’s campaign is planning to fully invest in the Sunshine State with hopes of making it competitive in 2024.
Moreover, DeSantis is trailing Trump in his home state by 20 points, according to a new Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet PolCom Lab poll. This may fuel the Democratic party’s speculation that the governor’s national liabilities are manifesting themselves into vulnerabilities at home. Democrats are likely hoping to mine these setbacks into political opportunities. The conservative firewall built brick-by-brick over the last four years appears to be showing cracks in its foundation and Democrats may seek to take advantage of any weaknesses.
Recently, DeSantis drew outcries from women’s groups after he signed a law ending permanent alimony in Florida. The legislation that took nearly a decade and four attempts to become law has finally done so under the presidential candidate’s watch and it is fuelling anger with a key DeSantis constituency: women.
The First Wives Advocacy group staunchly opposed the measure and now, some conservative members are considering switching political parties as a result.
In his landslide re-election victory last year, DeSantis won every demographic group including women who typically favoured Democrats. In 2022, DeSantis won the women's vote with 52 per cent support. A massive about-face considering just two years prior, President Biden won the women’s vote in Florida with 51 per cent support. By potentially upsetting traditionally conservative women that make up his base, DeSantis could be giving Democrats an opening to court these disaffected voters.
Moreover, a Twitter account for Ron DeSantis’ 2024 presidential bid has been criticized for sharing a video that slams Trump’s promise to protect LGBTQ2S+ rights. The tweet, which has since been deleted, included a video featuring a clip from Trump’s acceptance speech at the 2016 Republican convention after the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando. In the clip, Trump said, “I will do everything in my power to protect our LGBTQ citizens.”
DeSantis has also recently signed bills that ban gender-affirming care for minors, target drag shows and restrict the discussion of personal pronouns in schools. These moves could lead even one-time supporters of DeSantis to flee.
Still, the final story on the 2024 GOP primary battle has yet to be written. Presidential campaigns have tested the political mettle of the most astute and ingenious candidates. However, DeSantis’ current efforts at navigating the political minefields confronting him on a national level are shaping his political trajectory back home.
Now, it is imperative he steadies his candidacy, otherwise DeSantis may risk granting the Democrats an opportunity to move the state from red to blue. This may not only erase all the gains the GOP has enjoyed as a result of his efforts, but potentially strike out any hope of him being seen as a viable presidential candidate.
