Almost immediately after news of the Liberal-NDP confidence deal broke—seeing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government poised to maintain power until the end of this Parliament in 2025—opponents were calling it a “coalition” government and suggesting the agreement usurps what Canadians voted for.
“They've cooked up a backroom deal that would see Justin Trudeau get the majority power that he tried desperately to get last fall in the last election, but he failed to get. This deal means that Canadians have woken up to in essence, an NDP-Liberal majority government,” said interim Conservative Leader Candice Bergen on Tuesday. “Voters did not vote for a Liberal-NDP government.”
But what has been agreed to is not a coalition, and the Liberals still have a minority government. CTVNews.ca breaks down what the difference is between a confidence-and-supply agreement and a coalition, and explores whether this move is out of step with the 2021 election results.
WHAT KIND OF DEAL WAS DONE?
The Liberals and New Democrats have entered into a confidence-and-supply agreement that will see the NDP back the Liberals on any confidence votes and on budgets until June 2025, in exchange for action on longstanding priority issues including dental care.
These co-operation agreements are typically brokered in minority government situations, where no one party has the majority of seats needed to pass all key measures without relying on another party’s support.
So instead of having to go issue-by-issue soliciting support, an opposition party props up the governing party while remaining out of government, clearing the path for the government to remain in power for a period of time.
There have been past examples of confidence-and-supply deals struck in Canada, with a recent example being the 2017 provincial deal in British Columbia between the NDP and Greens.
HOW IS THAT DIFFERENT FROM A COALITION?
A coalition government is when parties formally join forces to hold a larger share of seats than any other party and, typically, share governing duties. Coalitions usually see members from all involved parties holding roles in the federal cabinet.
Extremely rare in Canada, a coalition government has not been formed federally in modern political times.
“What would make this a true coalition is if Jagmeet Singh or other members of the NDP caucus were in the Liberal cabinet, and that's certainly not the case. So they're not going to be at the centre of power,” said University of Windsor political science professor Lydia Miljan on CTV News Channel.
Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday that while he’s been talking to the NDP about ways they could collaborate to make Parliament work in a minority situation since the last federal election, “it was never about creating any greater formal agreements or power sharing.”
Looking to shoot down the Liberal-NDP coalition suggestion—one the Conservatives have been claiming prior to this deal being inked—NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh dismissed that he is now “in charge.”
“This is not a coalition. We never intended it to be a coalition, and it's never been something that we either put forward. Frankly it wasn't offered, nor would I have accepted it.”
IS THERE NOW A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT?
No, but there are elements of the deal that will make it feel like there is.
To back up a moment, Parliament has 338 seats. So in order to win a majority government a party needs to elect 170 or more MPs. The Liberals are in a minority position, holding 159 of the 338 seats.
But, with the guarantee of the 25 NDP votes, the Liberals and NDP will be in the majority. This will see key bills they’ve agreed to propel pass this minority House with the certainty typically only seen in a majority House of Commons.
It also means that so long as this agreement is maintained, the governing Liberals are not expected to fall on a confidence vote, which would trigger a federal election.
In this way, the agreement creates a factor otherwise typically not seen in minority governments: predictability around when the next election will be.
With the last election taking place in 2021, Canadians are not likely to have another election until at least the summer of 2025, with the next fixed election date set for October 2025.
WHAT DID CANADIANS VOTE FOR?
Canadians do not vote “for” or “against” majority or minority governments, rather they vote for their MP and, generally speaking, the party that wins the most ridings across the country will form government.
In the 2021 federal election, electors returned the Liberals to Ottawa with their second minority government, one that looked much like the House of Commons Canadians elected in 2019, with the seat distribution between the parties only varying slightly.
Both the Liberals and NDP have sought to frame this deal as serving up precisely what Canadians voted for: political parties working together in a minority situation to deliver change.
While no party ran on a plan to join forces to pass key issues, both the Liberals and NDP—who collectively secured 50.4 per cent of the popular vote—made commitments during the campaign to advance the policies tied into this new deal, from housing affordability to progress on reconciliation.
Individually, the party that won the popular vote was the Conservatives, with 33.7 per cent of the vote. Another 32.6 per cent voted Liberal, while 17.8 per cent voted for the NDP.
Given Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system, the number of overall votes cast does not dictate who will win the election. Rather, it is who wins the most ridings.
From there, it is largely up to the winning party to decide what issues it advances and how it wants to govern. This includes in minority situations, the ability to seek out support across the aisle, either on a vote-by-vote basis, through a confidence-and-supply agreement, or through a coalition.
“This is just the nature of a parliamentary democracy. This is one of the things that they have available to them, and I think depending on where you stand on the political spectrum, you can judge whether or not it's a good or bad day for democracy,” said Miljan.
