Canadians won’t be getting a break from soaring food prices any time soon, according to a December 2022 report which forecasts it will be more than $1,000 more expensive to feed the average family of four in 2023.
After a year of skyrocketing prices and grocers raking in profits while denying price gouging allegations, Canadians are set to see food prices go up by five to seven per cent more this year, the report found.
“To say that it’s been a challenging year for Canadians at the grocery store would be an understatement,” Sylvain Charlebois, project lead and Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, said in a press release. “Consumers will continue to get smarter about grocery shopping as they navigate through this so-called food inflation storm.”
Canada’s Food Price Report 2023, which was released in December 2022, is estimating price increases will mean an average Canadian family of four will spend around $16,288 per year on food, a jump of $1,065 compared to the yearly cost of food observed in 2022.
The biggest increases in food prices are expected to be seen in vegetables, dairy and meat.
The Dalhousie-led report is a yearly collaboration with three other universities across Canada: the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan and the University of British Columbia.
To create the 2023 report, researchers used a new forecasting model, which includes historical data along with “the additional variables of forecasted inflation and Canadian-U.S. exchange rate,” Kelleen Wiseman, UBC campus lead, said in the release.
Vegetable prices are predicted to increase by six to eight per cent in 2023, the largest price jump for any one category of food. The smallest change is expected to be within fruit, which is anticipated to increase in price by three to five per cent.
Estimations for sample households, with the largest estimate being around $21,200 in yearly food costs for a six person household including parents, a grandparent and three children, may not be fully accurate, researchers said. Instead, the costs could be even higher, as these estimates assume very little food waste and do not account for food service costs and eating out.
On a macro-level, factors such as climate change, geopolitical risks, energy costs and inflation are expected to have a very significant impact in driving up food prices in 2023.
FOOD PRICES FOR 2022 SOARED HIGHER THAN PREDICTED
This prediction of an overall increase by five to seven per cent for food prices in 2023 is the same prediction researchers made for 2022 — a prediction that turned out to be wrong. The current rate for food price increases as of September 2022 was 10.3 per cent, the report admits, much higher than had been anticipated.
At the time, the report’s prediction of an increase of seven per cent “was considered by many to be alarmist,” the new report stated. And yet, prices spiked even higher than expected.
Canada saw the highest rate of food inflation since the 1980s in 2022, the report stated. In 2022, vegetable prices increased by more than 12 per cent, while bakery items increased by nearly 15 per cent. Meat prices increased by 7.6 per cent, far above that category’s predicted two per cent increase.
In 2022, there were also nearly 1.5 million visits to food banks, with the usage in March 2022 being the highest of all time for that month. Food bank usage has been increasing since June 2020, the new report notes, and rising food prices are expected to keep this trend going as more and more Canadians find they can’t afford to buy food.
GROCERS UNDER FIRE
In March, the leaders of Canada’s major grocery chains testified in front of a parliamentary committee that they were not responsible for high food prices and were not price gouging.
The CEOs and presidents behind Loblaw Companies. Ltd., Metro Inc. and Empire Co. Ltd — which operates chains such as Sobeys, Safeway and FreshCo — argued that food inflation is a global problem.
Galen Weston took home $8.4 million in compensation in the 2022 fiscal year as head of the Loblaw Companies Ltd.
Last fall, research from Dalhousie University found Canada’s top three grocers posted higher profits in 2022 compared with their average performances over the last five years, although the research stopped short of suggesting that grocers were taking advantage of high inflation to charge an excess amount of money for food.
The new 2023 report notes Loblaws’ voluntary price freeze announced in October 2022 was a “move welcomed by many Canadians struggling with food inflation,” but added many across Canada are still concerned about potential price gouging.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS PRICES SURGE
Researchers noted climate change and changes in supply chain distribution are going to continue to affect prices.
As the war in Ukraine rages on, it will continue to have a persistent impact on food prices in Canada, the report predicted.
“The uncertainty from the ongoing Ukraine war shows no signs of ceasing and the Canadian dollar compared to the U.S. dollar has recently ranged five to seven cents lower and this has driven up the cost of all imported American products” Stuart Smyth, University of Saskatchewan campus lead, said in the release. “Labour shortages in key sectors, such as crop harvesting, food processing, and transportation lower supply and drive-up prices.”
Is there anything that the average Canadian can do? Researchers recommend for those who can, it’s a good time to become a “smart shopper” and start using coupons and consulting flyers for specials, as well as finding cheaper alternatives to expensive foods.
“We haven’t seen food prices increase this high in Canada for over 40 years and based on our findings, the increases we have predicted are still quite high but not as high as the increases for 2022,” Simon Somogyi, University of Guelph campus lead, said in the release. “That may be cold comfort for Canadians, as food prices are already high, but if inflation can come down, it’s possible that we could see price increases for 2023 at or below 5 per cent.”
Correction:
A previous version of this article stated that the Canada's Food Price Report 2023 was a new report released this week. This was incorrect. The report was published in December 2022.
