‘It doesn’t take a rocket scientist or a political scientist’: voter turnout expected to be low in winter election

An Elections Ontario sign.

With cold temperatures and potential poor driving conditions, the winter weather could have a chilling effect on voter turnout for Ontario’s provincial election on Feb. 27.

“The way political scientists think about it, voting is an investment of time and energy,” said Simon Kiss, Associate Professor of Political Science at Wilfrid Laurier University.

“It’s just harder, sidewalks aren’t clearer, buses and cars move slower, it’s harder to find parking, so there is no question it’s a time investment,” said Kiss.

Beyond the weather, Kiss believes the comfortable lead the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario has claimed in surveys ahead of the election may also keep voters away.

“Closer races do make for better turnout - the probability is much higher for each individual that their vote could be decisive or make a difference,” said Kiss.

Voter turnout in the 2022 Ontario provincial election was the lowest ever at 44 per cent. Ontario’s voter participation numbers haven’t hit over 60 per cent in 30 years:

2018 - 57 per cent

2014 – 51 per cent

2011 – 48 per cent

2007 – 52 per cent

2003 - 57 per cent

1999 - 58 per cent

1995 – 63 per cent

Kiss said if the race tightens in the final week, we could see a better turnout, and said rhetoric from south of the border could play a factor.

“There is this existential threat via the Trump tariffs and via his threats to take over the country, but it’s not clear that those have been mapped onto this provincial election,” said Kiss.

Advance voting runs Feb. 20, 21 and 22. Polls close February 27th at 9:00 p.m.