A new report found that cervical cancer rates have plateaued and are no longer declining, with one expert suggesting Canada may not reach its goal of eliminating the disease by 2040. According to the 2025 Canadian Cancer Statistics report, published Monday, cervical cancer rates had been declining between 1984 and 2005, with an annual decrease of 2.2 per cent. But between 2005 and 2021, the annual decrease was 0.3 per cent, with variability ranging from a 0.8 per cent decrease to a 0.4 per cent increase, representing a plateau. At one point, rates were increasing: the 2023 report shows that between 2015 and 2019, rates increased by 3.7 per cent, making it the fastest-growing cancer among women at that time. The report projects 1,650 new cases of cervical cancer in 2025, compared to 1,320 new confirmed cases in 2005, according to Statistics Canada. “The new data that is now included in the report is actually furthering our understanding of the trends in cervical cancer, providing that clearer view that points to a concerning plateau in cervical cancer rates after a period of significant progress that had been seen before,” Dr. Jennifer Gillis, director of surveillance for the Canadian Cancer Society and an epidemiologist who co-authored the report, told CTVNews.ca in an interview. Gillis says the trends in the report suggests the progress needed for Canada to meet its 2040 goal isn’t there. “The fact that cervical cancer incidence is no longer declining is really important, because we know cervical cancer is one of the only cancers we can eliminate.” The 2025 Canadian Cancer Statistics report is a collaboration between the Canadian Cancer Society, Statistics Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, and provides current estimates of new cancer cases and deaths by age group, sex, location and year. The report says more than 254,000 people are expected to be diagnosed with cancer this year alone, a 3.1 per cent increase of cases from last year’s estimate due to an increasing and aging population. According to Gillis, the report shows that Canada has made progress in reducing deaths from almost two-thirds of reported cancers, particularly lung, colorectal, and bladder, highlighting improvements in prevention, early detection, and treatment. The report also identifies areas needing improvement, like mortality rates in pancreatic cancer, which remains the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada. Screening and vaccination According to Gillis, cervical cancer is almost entirely preventable through the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination — HPV is the leading cause of the disease — and routine cervical cancer screening. Low participation in both could be one of the factors driving the trend in cervical cancer, she said. According to Statistics Canada, 69 per cent of females in the provinces aged 25-69 in 2024 reported having a Pap smear test, a cytology test used to screen for cervical cancer by collecting and looking at cells from the cervix for abnormalities, in the last three years. This is down from 74 per cent in 2017. Dr. Aisha Lofters, a clinician scientist and a family physician at Women’s College Hospital in Toronto, says that in her practice, screening rates for breast, colorectal and cervical cancer are below targets. For cervical cancer screening, she says she sees generally between 60 and 70 per cent participation. “Many cancers we know we don’t know a lot about in terms of what causes it, how to prevent it, but this is one cancer where there’s such a clear relationship between HPV and the development of cervical cancer,” Lofters told CTVNew.ca in an interview. “Cervical cancer typically is a slow-growing cancer, which is why screening is such an effective tool, so when we have these really effective tools of screening and vaccination, and we’re in a high income, very privileged country, but yet we’re still seeing these patterns, it becomes really, really concerning.” According to Statistics Canada’s latest data on Pap smear test participation in the country, some of the reasons women reported not having a recent test include not knowing the test was necessary, their health-care provider not deeming it necessary or mentioning it, not having the time to get a test, not having a regular health-care provider, and fear or discomfort from the test. Accelerated efforts needed Canada has introduced several initiatives to eliminate cervical cancer, including increased HPV vaccination awareness, and a shift to HPV testing rather than a Pap smear test. According to Lofters, HPV testing is more effective than a Pap smear test because it can catch the virus that causes cancer quicker and requires less frequent screening. Ontario, British Columbia, P.E.I. and Northwest Territories have all transitioned from Pap smear tests to HPV testing. Quebec is offering the service in some regions, with plans to fully implement it province-wide. B.C. offers at-home self-testing covered by the province, while Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, P.E.I. and Northwest Territories are piloting or have partially implemented self-screening, the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer confirmed to CTVNews.ca in an email. All other provinces and territories are in different stages of making the switch to HPV testing and offering self-testing. However, while all necessary and important steps are being taken, Lofters, who points to Canada’s recent loss of its measles elimination status, says the cervical cancer trend highlighted in the new report serves as a reminder that continued and accelerated efforts are needed. “Things can happen very quickly; we’ve seen that with measles and even with these cervical cancer numbers,” Lofters said. “The changes were coming, but they still kind of crept up on us, and I was really surprised when I saw what had happened when it came to cervical cancer rates.” “We have to stay diligent, and we have to really invest in our public health infrastructure, into our organized screening and vaccination programs to be able to maintain the health of all Canadians.”
