Canadians should "prepare for the worst" when it comes to a potential swine flu outbreak this fall, according to one infectious disease expert, but it's still too early to tell how bad it could get.
As millions of children and young adults head back to school this week, public health officials are warning of a resurgence of an illness that sickened at least 7,100 Canadians after it emerged last April. Many more cases were likely not reported.
Infectious disease specialist Dr. Donald Low said Tuesday it may be late September or early October before experts can predict how severe an outbreak may be.
"I think we really have to prepare for the worst. There is some indication from schools and universities in the United States that there's increased activity already. Japan has already reported an early fall season, which is very unusual, very early," Low told CTV News Channel.
"So it is not time to let down our guard, that's for sure. Everybody is waiting and watching to see what unfolds over the next few weeks as the kids go back to school and universities open."
Experts agree that so far, there is no sign the virus has mutated, and the outbreak in the southern hemisphere has mirrored what occurred in the northern hemisphere from April to June, Low said.
He predicts that this fall's H1N1 virus will likely be similar to last spring's, which means the biggest questions will be when an outbreak will begin and how widespread it will be.
"This whole thing could be over by October, depending on what happens once kids are back into school," Low said. "So it's really a bit of a guessing game."
Officials have announced that a swine-flu vaccine should be ready by mid-October but may not be widely available until November.
So officials are on a public relations blitz this week, teaching schoolchildren to wash their hands thoroughly and cough into their arms.
Also on Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control issued new guidelines for the use of antivirals, such as Tamiflu.
Dr. Anne Schuchat told a news conference that flu medications should only be prescribed sparingly to avoid widespread resistance.
"The majority of adolescents and adults, and most children, won't need antivirals if they develop influenza-like illness," Schuchat said. "They can be cared for with Mom's chicken soup at home, rest and lots of fluids."
Schuchat said patients who are at higher risk of infection or complications, such as pregnant women, the very old and very young, and those who have illnesses such as asthma, should still consult a physician if they get sick, because they may need antivirals.
