Liberals lead Conservatives by 3 points on eve of federal election: Nanos

CTVNews.ca had exclusive polling data throughout the federal election campaign by Nanos Research. The final ballot tracking for CTV News and Globe and Mail is now complete, with interviews completed Sunday, April 27 and released the same day.

The Liberals have a three-point advantage over the Conservatives on the eve of the federal election.

As of Sunday night, a one day ballot tracking by Nanos Research conducted on April 27, has the Liberals at 43 per cent (42.6) over the Conservatives, who are at 40 per cent (39.9) nationally.

The New Democratic Party is at eight per cent (7.8), followed by the Bloc Quebecois (6.4), Green Party of Canada (1.9) and the People’s Party of Canada (1.1).

Calling 2025 a “seismic period in federal politics,” pollster Nik Nanos said the year opened with the Conservatives at 47 per cent support followed by the Liberals, “at a lowly 20 per cent on the eve of Justin Trudeau’s resignation.”

“Fast forward and with the Trudeau resignation, Trump tariff attacks and the Liberals electing (Mark) Carney as party leader, what looked like a Liberal party on its deathbed is a party that has led in ballot support for the whole election,” said Nanos, chief data scientist and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.

Regional support

Regionally, Liberals are ahead in the Atlantic, Ontario, Quebec and with a slight lead in B.C., while Conservatives remain dominant in the Prairies.

The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region remains strong at 52 per cent versus 36 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remains far behind but have climbed a few points and are at nine per cent.

The Liberals were able to maintain a strong lead in Quebec throughout the campaign and are at 42 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois is in second at 28 per cent and the Conservatives are in third at 22 per cent. The NDP sits at four per cent in the province, just ahead of the Green Party at three.

In Ontario, the Liberals went from a double-digit advantage early this week to just three per cent in Sunday’s tracking. They’re at 46 per cent now versus the Conservatives at 43. The NDP is at seven.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 55 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 32 for the Liberals. The NDP is at 11.

In B.C., it’s still close but the Liberals have gained a few points and are at 42 per cent over the Conservatives, at 39 per cent. The NDP is at 13.

• Full coverage of federal election 2025

Who is preferred prime minister?

When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has regained a 20-point advantage as of Sunday night, with 52 per cent choosing him over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre at 32 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at six per cent.

By gender and age

A gender breakdown shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 30 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Ten per cent of women back the NDP.

The number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 34 per cent, compared with 50 for the Conservatives. Six per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.

Meanwhile, the number of women who prefer Carney (55 per cent) over Poilievre (28 per cent) as prime minster is also significantly larger. While more men also chose Carney (46 per cent) over Poilievre (40 per cent) as preferred PM, the gap is notably smaller.

The Conservative lead among voters under 35 has widened with 41 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 32 for the Liberals. The NDP has regained several points and is back up to 13 per cent in Sunday’s tracking.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have pulled ahead among middle-aged voters 35 to 54, with 46 per cent support versus 39 for the Liberals. Seven per cent would vote NDP.

The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-two per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 34 for the Conservatives. Five per cent in that age category chose the NDP.

Ballot support versus seats won

In his final analysis, Nanos warned that “ballot support does not usually convert into seats.”

“If the past helps inform the future the Conservatives, who won the popular support in the last two elections, (they) were not able to efficiently convert that support into the greatest number of seats,” said Nanos.

“All this boils down to an election where Liberal votes were driven by the Carney personal brand and worry about managing U.S. President Trump while the Conservative votes were driven by a strong appetite for change and a Conservative agenda.”

• How seat projections differ from daily polling

Methodology

CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 26 and 27, 2025, n=1,707, accurate 2.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. A double daily sample was conducted Saturday and Sunday, and the election call is based on a one-day sample on Sunday only (tracking ending April 27). Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography. Read the full methodology here.