Liberals lead by 5 points over Conservatives in a ‘nation divided between East and West’: Nanos

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CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.

The Liberals have a five-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 34 of the 36-day federal election campaign.

A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research conducted on April 22-24 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives, who are at 38 per cent nationally.

The New Democratic Party is at eight per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).

Regional support

It’s a “nation divided between East and West,” said Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.

Liberals are ahead in the Atlantic, Ontario and Quebec while Conservatives remain dominant in the Prairies. B.C., meanwhile, is a “toss up,” said Nanos.

In Ontario, the Liberals went from a double-digit advantage earlier in the week to seven points and they’re at 47 per cent versus the Conservatives at 40. The NDP is at eight.

The Liberals have widened their lead in Quebec and are at 41 compared with the Conservatives at 21. The Bloc Quebecois is in second place at 26 per cent.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 57 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 30 for the Liberals. The NDP is at nine.

In B.C., the Liberals are at 39 per cent versus 41 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP is at 13.

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The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region remains strong at 62 per cent versus 34 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remains far behind in the region at three per cent.

Who is preferred prime minister?

When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has an 11-point advantage, with 46 per cent choosing him over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is at 35 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at five per cent.

By gender and age

A gender breakdown shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Forty-eight per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 32 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Eight per cent of women back the NDP.

Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent, compared with 45 for the Conservatives. Nine per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.

The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 continues with 44 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 31 for the Liberals. Thirteen per cent chose the NDP.

Meanwhile, it’s a dead heat among those aged 35 to 54, with Conservatives at 41 per cent versus 42 for the Liberals. Seven per cent would vote NDP.

The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-one per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 32 for the Conservatives. Seven per cent in that age category chose the NDP.

Methodology

CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 22 to 24, 2025, n=1,302, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography.