Environics Analytics: Who makes up the wide mosaic of our federal ridings, and how do they vote?

Canadians’ voting patterns can be as diverse and varied as their vast geography. Environics Analytics has broken down some key voting segments and indicators on some key issues in this election. (Environics Analytics)

Environics Analytics (EA) specializes in creating high-quality, privacy-compliant estimates about the Canadian population at small geographic areas. We use a range of data sources and modelling techniques to estimate tens of thousands of variables relating to demographics, expenditures, wealth, leisure, health, psychographics, media use and human movement.

EA has also created a detailed segmentation system called PRIZM that assigns each of Canada’s six-digit postal codes (or postal code-community name combinations in rural areas) to one of 67 lifestyle segments based on demographics, psychographics and urbanity. PRIZM allows users to find similar types of populations wherever they are in the country, and to easily understand the different populations who live in a location or engage in an activity of interest. EA data is used to augment the understanding of populations, to locate them and to communicate more effectively with them.

Riding & Election Data

The riding reports on this website use EA’s 2024 estimates to create an up-to-date overview of each of Canada’s 343 federal ridings. We have selected a range of demographic, expenditure, psychographic, vaccination intention and movement data as indicators of overall riding characteristics and sentiment for some of the important issues in this election.

Voter Segments

Voter segments provide insight into the voting preferences of different groups of Canadians. This allows us to understand which broad groups of voters are present in different ridings, how they might tend to view certain issues, and how they voted in the 2021 federal election. To create these segments, we proportionately attributed publicly available poll-level return data from Elections Canada to the postal codes covered by each poll. Then we overlayed EA’s PRIZM data to create 15 voter segments that group together the 67 PRIZMs that tend to have similar demographics and regional voting behaviours. We have provided national summary reports containing the same information as the Riding Reports for the voter segments. Note that these segments are based on postal code and riding data, not individual data, so the names and descriptions of each segment are intended to capture the predominant characteristics of each segment as a whole. Individual voters may or may not fit the segment’s characterization.

Affluent Families

Battle between Liberals and CPC in Ontario

The wealthiest segment of voters in the country, Affluent Families typically have teenaged or college-aged children or are empty-nest couples. They have a low debt-to-asset ratio and live in well-heeled urban and suburban neighbourhoods where the average home value is more than $1,400,000, or 80% above the national average at year-end 2023. They are avid newspaper readers and are more likely than average to be using LinkedIn. Affluent Families range from 11% to 14% of voters in Ontario, Alberta and B.C., and 4% to 8% of voters in smaller English Canadian provinces. They had high voter turnout (nearly 70% in the 2021 federal election) and tended to vote Conservative in the West, while the Liberals won the popular vote with this segment in Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Markham--Unionville, Ont.
2. Oakville East, Ont.
3. Lac-Saint-Louis, Que.
4. North Vancouver--Capilano, B.C.
5. Calgary Signal Hill, Alta.

Aging Heartland

Solid CPC voters outside Atlantic Canada

Aging Heartland contains maturing families and empty-nest couples in English Canada’s most prosperous rural communities. This segment had the highest voter turnout in the 2021 federal election with 69% casting a ballot. Climate and environmental initiatives are sure to be hot topics in Aging Heartland since their Social Values indicate that they are less supportive than average of paying extra for environmental initiatives.

Radio still has decent reach with this segment, with Classic Country and Classic Rock formats among their favourites. This was a decidedly Conservative segment: they won Aging Heartland’s popular vote in every province except for some in the Atlantic region. They represent 4% and 17% of voters in English Canada, depending on the province with high concentrations in the Prairie provinces.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Huron--Bruce, Ont.
2. Provencher, Man.
3. Wellington—Halton Hills North, Ont.
4. Ponoka—Didsbury, Alta.
5. Essex, Ont.

Big City Burbs

Will Liberals hold on to these voters in key suburban ridings in Ontario and B.C.?

Big City Burbs is a collection of prosperous suburbs mainly found in B.C., Alberta and Ontario. They contain well-established immigrant and second-generation professionals and service workers who are raising their children in fast-growing communities.

In those three provinces, they represent 9% to 15% of voters and had below-average voter turnout at under 59% in the 2021 federal election. They tend to be highly sought-after as they are often found in swing ridings. The Conservatives won this segment handily in Alberta, but the Liberals had a relatively strong showing with Big City Burbs compared to other segments.

In B.C., the Conservatives also won their popular vote, but the Liberals were not that far behind. In Ontario, the Liberals took this segment. While they are likely to call themselves proud Canadians and trust institutions like government, the courts and schools, they are not very interested in politics.

Their Social Values indicate they are risk-takers, tech enthusiasts and aware of status more than the average Canadian.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Brampton West, Ont.
2. Markham--Thornhill, Ont.
3. Scarborough North, Ont.
4. Richmond Centre—Marpole, B.C.
5. Calgary—Skyview, Alta.

Célibataires et Couples Âgés

Will the BQ maintain its stronghold with these voters, or will the Liberals break through?

These traditional, older singles and couples live in and around Quebec’s cities, mostly outside of the Montreal region. They live in a mix of apartments and houses, and, for those not working, their modest incomes depend on pensions and retirement savings.

With the cost of living relatively low in their communities, they can still participate in cultural activities and take the odd trip, though their Social Values indicate that pragmatism and simplicity will be important considerations in decision-making (Utilitarian Consumerism and Aversion to Complexity).

This segment uses traditional broadcast media quite heavily. They make up 20% of the electorate in Quebec and decisively favoured the Bloc Québécois in the 2021 federal election. Turnout was low at 59%.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Sherbrooke, Que.
2. Rivière-du-Nord, Que.
3. Shefford, Que.

Francophones aux Villages

The BQ’s best performing segment in 2021.

These empty nesters live in smaller communities around Quebec and New Brunswick. They have modest incomes, but also a low cost of living. Social Values indicate they are fond of their rural and small-town roots, are concerned about environmental degradation and look to people they respect for guidance.

For news, their trust in traditional media has maintained or even grown compared to other Canadians, while their confidence in social media is more likely to have diminished. In the 2025 federal election, Francophones aux Villages represents 25% of electors in Quebec and 19% in New Brunswick, and they had above-average turnout in each of those provinces in the 2021 federal election. In Quebec, they were Bloc Québécois voters, with the Liberals and Conservatives tied for second place.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj, Que.
2. Laurentides--Labelle, Que.
3. Acadie—Bathurst, N.B.

Indigenous Families

Party preference varies by region; local shifts could swing certain ridings.

About two in three residents identify as Indigenous in these small-town and rural communities. This segment includes most reserves across the country. Most households have children present, with a significant number of multi-generational families.

Residents score very strongly on the Social Value Multiculturalism, which indicates support for preserving and embracing diversity of cultures and communities. Voter turnout in 2021 was low at 45% and party preference was different region to region, with each of the three largest parties winning the popular vote depending on the province.

Indigenous Families are large proportions of voters in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, while they are 5% or less in the provinces. Given the high concentration of this segment in some ridings, they can be a critical force locally despite their small overall numbers at a national or regional level.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Nunavut, NU
2. Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River / Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière Churchill, Sask.
3. Churchill--Keewatinook Aski, Man.

Jeunes en Ville

Will Liberals hang on to these voters in Quebec?

These well-educated, urban Quebecers are a mix of young singles and couples in dense, central neighbourhoods of Montreal and Quebec City. They are 13% of the electorate in Quebec. Jeunes en Ville also has high concentrations of racialized populations and immigrants. This segment is strong on Ecological Concern and believes in Active Government according to their Social Values.

Their engagement with politics tends to be bimodal: a larger proportion than average is highly engaged politically by volunteering for a party or attending a demonstration, for example. But a larger proportion than average also says they are not at all interested in politics. News/Talk is a radio format that, perhaps surprisingly, has good reach with this segment.

On balance, voter turnout was 62% - below average, but not the lowest segment. They favoured the Liberals in 2021, with the Bloc Québécois in second and the NDP third. The NDP achieved their second-highest share of votes with this segment.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie, Que.
2. Laurier--Sainte-Marie, Que.
3. Québec Centre, Que.

Les Familles

Expect a BQ-Liberal fight in Quebec

Representing 24% of the electorate in Quebec, Les Familles are upper-middle-class families in Quebec’s suburbs. Despite their decent incomes, Les Familles have an above-average debt-to-asset ratio so affordability and interest rates could figure in their day-to-day concerns, though their Social Values indicate they are less worried about their future finances (Financial Concern Regarding the Future) and enjoy living for today (Intuition & Impulse).

When this segment is online, they like to stream music and TV content. They had the highest voter turnout of all segments in Quebec for the 2021 federal election (68%). Les Familles favoured the Bloc Québécois, with the Liberals finishing second.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Mont-Saint-Bruno – L’Acadie, Que.
2. Mirabel, Que.
3. Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères, Que.

Metro Boomers

Can Liberals attract NDP votes to overtake CPC with this segment in the West?

Metro Boomers are middle-income urban seniors found in English Canada. This segment scores strongly on Social Values like National Pride, Primacy of Environmental Protection, and Multiculturalism, but have varying levels of confidence in our actual institutions like the courts, health system or schools. They are politically engaged, expressing a high degree of interest and action by contacting politicians, signing petitions and going to public meetings.

Metro Boomers use a variety of media channels and are more likely than average to click online and read direct mail advertising. They typically make up 5% to 13% of voters in each region, and voter turnout was above average in the 2021 federal election at 64%.

The Conservatives took this segment last time in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the Liberals were the favourite party elsewhere. B.C. was a particularly competitive three-way race for this segment’s votes with all three major parties within 3 percentage points of one another.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Burlington, Ont.
2. Winnipeg West, Man.
3. London Centre, Ont.
4. South Surrey – White Rock, B.C.
5. Calgary Heritage, Alta.

Modest Metros

It was a tight three-way race in Ontario, Manitoba and B.C. for these voters

A lower-income segment found in central cities in English Canada, Modest Metros tends to have a variety of household types, with singles, couples and lone-parent families all being common. Residents are generally on the young side, but a smaller component of older residents also lives here. About 10% are Indigenous. With their modest incomes, rent eats up a disproportionately large share of their expenses.

Voter turnout was second-lowest of all segments in the 2021 federal election at 55%. Modest Metros is a competitive segment for the large parties, perhaps with the potential to swing some seats if voters can be mobilized to cast a ballot. This segment has real concerns about their personal security as indicated by the Social Values Fear of Violence and Financial Concern Regarding the Future coupled with low confidence in most of society’s institutions. But they do remain inclusive and optimistic given their belief in Racial Fusion, Introspection & Empathy, and Personal Optimism.

When on social media, X and Snapchat are especially popular. In 2021, the NDP eked out wins in popular vote in B.C. and Manitoba. In Ontario, the Liberals won, with the Conservatives and NDP neck-in-neck and only two points behind. Depending on province, Modest Metros usually represents between 6% and 12% of the electorate.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Edmonton Griesbach, Alta.
2. Hamilton Centre, Ont.
3. London--Fanshawe, Ont.
4. Winnipeg Centre, Sask.
5. Charlottetown, PE

Canadian Mosaic

Liberal voters outside of Alberta

Canadian Mosaic represents between 8% and 13% of voters in all provinces outside Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan where this segment’s presence is very small. These are middle to lower-middle income postal codes in cities that often have large numbers of newcomers. Cost of housing is high for these Canadians with rent taking proportionately a one-third larger share out of the household budget than average for Canadian tenants.

With disposable incomes 10% below the national average, affordability issues will be on their minds. Canadian Mosaic voters are avid consumers of digital media in particular and use a variety of social media channels and websites to get through their day. This segment was solidly Liberal in Ontario and Quebec, solidly Conservative in Alberta, and competitive between the Liberals and NDP in B.C. and Manitoba, with the Liberals leading by a small margin. With low voter turnout at 59% in the 2021 federal election, getting this group engaged could help some parties make gains.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel, Que.
2. Humber River--Black Creek, Ont.
3. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East, Ont.
4. Surrey Centre, B.C.
5. Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.

Older Rustic

CPC heartland voters

Older Rustic is found throughout English Canada and contains aging, rural couples with modest incomes. About 10% of the population is Indigenous. This segment makes up just under 10% of the electorate, but in Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan this segment is much larger: at least 20% of voters belong to the segment.

This population tends to suffer from more chronic health conditions than average and spend more on healthcare. They also spend disproportionately on transportation. This segment favours traditional media, but residents do go online, especially to find listings and deals on items for sale. In almost every province, the Conservatives won this segment. Older Rustic voters turned out at above-average rates during the 2021 federal election (66%).

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Acadie – Annapolis, N.S.
2. Central Newfoundland, N.L.
3. Swift Current – Grasslands – Kindersley, Sask.
4. Haliburton – Kawartha Lakes, Ont.
5. Columbia – Kootenay – Southern Rockies, B.C.

Second City Suburbs

Can Liberals attract enough NDP votes to overtake the CPC with this segment in Ontario and B.C.?

Middle and upper-middle income families gravitate to these suburban neighbourhoods in English Canada, found mostly around cities other than Toronto and Vancouver. Pocketbook issues are likely top-of-mind with Second City Suburbs as they have high debt-to-asset ratios and a larger-than-average share of expenses devoted to childcare.

This is definitely a “digital-first” segment: they go online to get news, learn about products and services and find deals. On balance, this segment voted Conservative in the 2021 federal election, but the margin with the Liberals in Ontario was under 5%. Second City Suburbs is the largest segment in the country, representing 11% of the electorate, with especially high concentrations in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Turnout was an above-average 64% in the 2021 federal election.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Calgary – Shepard, Alta.
2. Barrie South – Innisfil, Ont.
3. Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge, B.C.
4. Flamborough – Glanbrook – Brant North, Ont.
5. Edmonton Gateway, Alta.

Suburban Nesters

A tight race for the CPC to hold on to this segment in Ontario and B.C.

The late-career and retired couples and singles living in Suburban Nesters surround mid-sized and smaller cities across English Canada. With middle to lower-middle incomes often derived from retirement savings and pensions, their low-debt lifestyles ensure they are comfortable, but mindful of pocketbook issues that affect them because they don’t always feel secure about their finances, as shown by their high score on the Social Value Financial Concern Regarding the Future.

Their turnout in the 2021 federal election was – surprisingly for an older segment – below average at 60%. Suburban Nesters turns to TV and radio for entertainment (especially sports and home renovation shows) and news. Flyers are also popular. They voted Liberal in the Atlantic Provinces and Conservative on the Prairies. Their vote share was much more hotly contested in Ontario between the Conservatives and Liberals, and in B.C. between the Conservatives and the NDP. In most provinces, Suburban Nesters represent between 4% and 12% of the electorate.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Courtenay--Alberni, B.C.
2. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay, B.C.
3. Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma, Ont.
4. Northumberland--Clarke, Ont.
5. Cape Spear, N.L.

Young in the City

A strong NDP segment in many regions. Can they hold on?

This segment is characterized by young Canadians starting their careers with good educations, while trying to enjoy what downtown neighbourhoods have to offer. They believe in diversity and equality, scoring strongly on the Social Values Rejection of Authority, Flexible Families and Multiculturalism.

Not surprisingly, this segment is heavily online using a range of social media channels and websites for many different purposes. But they do still tune in selectively to TV for their favourite shows and browse newspapers, especially real estate sections.

The Liberals easily won Young in the City in the 2021 federal election in Ontario and Quebec, but in most other provinces it was a battle with the NDP. This was the Conservatives’ worst-performing voter segment in nearly every province. Young in the City represents 7% of the electorate nationally and in the 2021 federal election had voter turnout at 62% which is about average.

Selected Top Ridings (by percent of eligible voters falling in this segment) - Federal Election 2025

1. Spadina – Harbourfront, Ont.
2. Vancouver Centre, B.C.
3. Calgary Centre, Alta.
4. Ottawa Centre, Ont.
5. Halifax, N.S.

Environics Analytics (EA) specializes in creating high-quality, privacy-compliant estimates about the Canadian population at small geographic areas. We use a range of data sources and modelling techniques to estimate tens of thousands of variables relating to demographics, expenditures, wealth, leisure, health, psychographics, media use and human movement. EA has also created a detailed segmentation system called PRIZM that assigns each of Canada’s six-digit postal codes (or postal code-community name combinations in rural areas) to one of 67 lifestyle segments based on demographics, psychographics and urbanity. PRIZM allows users to find similar types of populations wherever they are in the country, and to easily understand the different populations who live in a location or engage in an activity of interest. EA data is used to augment the understanding of populations, to locate them and to communicate more effectively with them.