Climate scientists say parts of Alberta could see winter temperatures up to seven degrees above normal. Without consistent sub-zero temperatures to lock in this summer’s moisture, parts of the province could see drier-than-normal conditions come spring if the anticipated super-strength El Niño transpires. “We’re expecting more evaporation, less snowfall and less snowpack going into the spring, which will impact the amount of moisture and water that gets into the system,” Trevor Hadwen, agroclimate specialist with Agriculture Agri-Food Canada said. El Niño is a natural phenomenon that happens every few years when water in the Pacific Ocean warms more than half a degree above normal. According to the National Weather Service, there is a 75-per-cent chance this year’s El Niño will be a historic event, with warming forecasted to peak at 3.5 C. “By most measures, the strength of that event is already exceeding the strongest ones that were observed previously,” said Bill Merryfield, a research scientist for Environment and Climate Change Canada. “Even a couple of degrees or more warming may not sound like a lot,” Merryfield added. “But because of its effects on the atmosphere, it can rearrange seasonal climate patterns across much of the world.” Merryfield and Hadwen said those impacts are expected to manifest in Alberta as milder winter temperatures and less precipitation in the Rocky Mountains. Hadwen said while parts of Alberta were replenished by historic rainfall, that moisture won’t last long should winter temperatures reach predictions of 7 C above average. “We’re looking at some really dry conditions, some really hot conditions going into winter, so losing a lot of moisture there,” Hadwen said. “The question is: is your region going to have enough left over at the end of winter in that subsurface moisture to benefit us in the spring for agricultural purposes?” he added. According to the Canada Water Portal, Alberta is vulnerable to drought because it heavily relies on melting snow and precipitation for most of its water. When snow is sparse or melts too fast in the spring, there isn’t as much water left during summer months when it’s needed. Callum Reid, the press secretary for Alberta’s Minister of Agriculture, said changes in weather patterns such as El Niño events can have “significant impacts on soil health, crop and forage development, and livestock production.” “Drier years typically mean lower yields for crops, higher forage and hay prices, and a greater reliance on irrigation, all of which cost producers more money,” Reid said, but added “it’s still too early to say with confidence what the coming winter will have in store.” In 2023, which was one of the five strongest El Niños on record, drought-related payouts reached a record $326.5 million. Steve Souto, co-owner of Steve & Dan’s Fresh BC Fruit, said many local producers are still reeling from losses caused by heavy rain, hail and tornadoes. Some have lost their businesses, while others don’t have much to fall back on if 2027 is another difficult year. “We farmers are at the mercy of the weather, and it’s for sure a hard situation to deal with,” Souto said. Two years ago, his business, which relies on farms in Alberta and B.C., took a big blow from a warm spell followed by a cold snap. “All the trees started thinking of spring already, and then it dropped back in temperature. So things were already starting to bloom, and we lost all the stone fruits,” he explained. “Trees, they have to go into dormancy and stay in dormancy, and so this fluctuation in weather makes it very, very difficult for farming.” The 2026 El Niño will continue to gather strength until the end of the year, with the World Meteorological Organization forecasting a near-100-per-cent likelihood it will last through February 2027. Merryfield said its influence is expected to dissipate starting in March or April 2027. He said there is a good chance the " tremendous amounts of heat" released from the ocean and back into the atmosphere will be followed by a historic high global temperature. “We are expecting with almost certainty that the record will be broken again in 2027, just three years after the last record, which was set following a much lesser El Niño event,” he added. Two of Alberta’s worst wildfire seasons coincided with El Niño events. In 2019, Alberta set a record with more 883, 441 hectares burned. That record was shattered in 2023 after 2, 211,900 hectares burned. Derrick Forsythe with Alberta Wildfire said officials are aware of the modeling on the incoming El Niño but aren’t making any plans yet. “After 2023, instead of starting on March 1, the wildfire season, we backed it up into late February to give us a little extra time to get ready because there were El Niño conditions that were in place going into the 2024 season,” Forsythe said. “I haven’t heard of anybody talking about that for this year coming yet,” he added. Forsythe said long-range modelling offers “waypoints” where things could go, but they aren’t taken as “gospel.” “It helps generally inform us to say, ‘Hey, heads up, it’s going to be a warmer, drier winter.’” Forsythe added. “It’s not driving our operations for 2027.” A dry winter, he explained, can be mitigated by a late-season dump of snow while a wet winter can predate a bad wildfire season should warm temperatures arrive and dry fuels out early in the spring. “What happens through the March to April timeframe … that will determine the level of activity we’re going to have more than anything,” he said. The effects of this year’s El Niño are expected to be milder in Alberta than in other parts of the world, with some countries already already experiencing severe drought. According to a recent research report, this year’s super event could lead to as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths between June and the end of February. With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Noah Rishaug
