U.S. peace proposal ‘unacceptable’ to Ukraine: U of A professor

David Marples, a professor at the University of Alberta, talks about proposed peace plans to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Europe is working to put together a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. David Marples, a University of Alberta professor who has studied the history and politics of both countries, discusses with CTV Your Morning Edmonton’s Kent Morrison the details of a proposal by the United States.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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Kent Morrison: What’s the state of this discussion right now? Where are peace talks at?

David Marples: The initial peace talks were modified a little bit in Geneva yesterday, but we don’t know exactly in which way they were modified.

The original (proposal) was unacceptable to Ukraine, mainly, I think, because it specified that Ukraine must give up areas in the eastern Donetsk region that is not occupied by Russia, to the tune of about 250,000 population and large fortified cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka, that Ukraine simply doesn’t want to give up.

Also, it limits the size of the Ukrainian army to about 600,000 troops and it also really doesn’t give Ukraine any guarantees of security. So from Ukraine’s perspective, this was a Russian peace deal manufactured in Moscow, rather than one initiated by the United States.

KM: Do we know much about how this happened? How is it so favourable to Russia, given that it’s the United States that’s trying to broker this?

DM: Well, I think the Russian diplomat behind this, Kirill Dmitriev, is a very skilled diplomat. He’s actually a Ukrainian by birth, and his parents still live in Kyiv, ironically enough, so he’s well aware of the situation in Ukraine. He also speaks good English, so he was chosen to communicate with the Americans. Steve Witkoff, the American diplomat, by contrast, has never been to Ukraine, doesn’t know the language, doesn’t know the cultural history – but he’s very close to Russia, and he’s been that way for some time. He considers Vladimir Putin to be a friend, which I would find disturbing, actually, in a U.S. diplomat who’s supposed to be objective in these sort of discussions.

So the two of them came up with this peace plan. The Europeans have also – particularly the British, the Germans and the French – come up with their own version, which is a little better, as (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky himself has said, but at the same time, is far from clear on what Ukraine should give up and how these territorial issues should be decided in the future.

KM: So how likely is it that Ukraine is going to have to give up territory if it seeks peace?

DM: Very likely. I don’t think Russia would even consider signing anything unless it does. I mean, actually, I doubt Russia will sign this one either, because Russia claims to be doing quite well.

But in fact, it would be very difficult to get the Russians out of Crimea, which they’ve occupied since March 2014, and the other areas in the East also might be difficult to remove Russia from where they are now. So I think that the key aspects are the remaining parts of the Donbas, which are the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south of Ukraine, which are very important. Ukraine occupies the major cities, but east of the Dnieper River, the main river dividing Ukraine from east to west, are Russian troops, and any peace deal has to consider that if Ukraine could get these provinces back, it would be on a much more secure footing than otherwise.

So I think that is the crucial thing, and Ukrainians are not willing to give up these territories.